At least let me watch England go out in the quarters

Internationals / Dan Fitch / 16 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch looks at some of the more evenly balanced groups as we reach the business end of Euro 2008 qualification

Like everyone else on Saturday night, I was in front of the TV to see England's burliest talent on display. Then, after watching Letitia Dean on Strictly Come Dancing, I settled down for the rugby. Like many football fans, I don't fully understand the rules of the game and though I wanted England to win, should they have lost, it would have been about on par with how I felt when it was announced that there wouldn't be a fourth season of Deadwood. A bit miffed, but life goes on...

How I wish that I could feel so ambivalent about the England football team. Every heroic failure has been like a dagger through my heart, which no simple shrugging of shoulders could mend. Still, it is better to have loved and lost, than to never have loved at all, which is why qualification for Euro 2008 is so vital. Yes, we'll probably end up losing in the quarters again, but at least we know that our defeat will be blameable on a disallowed goal/harsh sending off/penalty shoot out (delete as applicable, though our demise will probably include all three of these factors). In short, I know Euro 2008 is going to tear me apart inside, but I still want in.

Qualification is now in our own hands, though with Paul Robinson in goal, we'll probably drop it. Much fuss has been made regarding our facing Russia on a plastic pitch and when you consider that playing on such a surface allowed Luton Town to masquerade as a First Division football team during the eighties, you have to concede that it's quite a leveller. However, I expect a draw (available at 3.35) at the least, with Steve McClaren having finally stumbled upon a balanced team. Though this would represent a good result, a price of 1.3 for England to qualify seems unbackable given our predisposition towards making things difficult for ourselves. Also skinny is the 3.55 to win the group, with Croatia only really needing a win in Macedonia, were we not to win in Moscow.

The most dramatic finish will surely come in Group B, where Scotland are the 1.94 outsiders to qualify, despite currently leading the pack. It seems that punters just can't get their minds round the idea of Italy and France not qualifying for a tournament and Scotland not eventually making a hash of things. The fact remains though, that if Scotland were to win in Georgia (available at 1.77), then France would face an uphill struggle to qualify, needing to win away in their final game against Ukraine. With Italy so guaranteed to take 3 points against the Faroes, that there's no need to even bribe the ref, I'd suggest a lay of France at 1.34 to qualify.

Poland may be worth a punt to win group A at 2.5. They already lead Portugal by 4 points and though the Portuguese have a game in hand, they are specialists in drawing games that they should win. Though their remaining fixtures look comfortable, they have already dropped points against Finland, Poland (twice), Serbia (twice) and Belgium. As always seems to be the case with Portugal, despite their brilliant midfield play, they have no front man to put away the chances. One shudders to imagine what a side they'd be, had someone like James Beattie been born in Lisbon.

Fellow underachievers Spain (2.54 to win Group F) and Holland (4.2 to top group G), represent poor value, though both should limp through in second place. Of the two, the Dutch seem most at risk and the 9 available for Bulgaria to qualify at their expense, shouldn't be discounted. Ultimately though, whilst we all enjoy an upset, there's nothing like seeing the major nations clashing heads in the summer tournaments. However, I'll make an exception in wishing Scotland luck in upsetting the form book. At least if they qualify, it'll save their fans having to buy the replica shirts of whoever England are playing.

To read more about the England football team go to:

www.thefa.com