German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 30 October 2009 / Leave a comment

New betting.betfair.com Bundesliga tipster Kevin Hatchard tells us why defending champions Wolfsburg are a vulnerable side at the moment, meaning the smart money is on a shock Mainz win.

"There have also been discipline issues. After publicly criticising Veh, Grafite was given the week off to “free his mind.” I suspect Magath would have told the Brazilian to “free his mind” in the reserves or on the transfer list."

Stuttgart [4.7] vs Bayern Munich [1.86], the draw [3.9]

After five straight defeats, the sword of Damocles hangs menacingly over the head of Stuttgart coach Markus Babbel. Sporting director Horst Heldt says Babbel deserves time to turn things around after securing Champions League qualification for Die Roten last season. However, the midweek German Cup exit to Greuther Furth has tested patience to the limit, and the word is that defeat to Bayern on Saturday will get Babbel the boot.

The last thing Babbel needs is the visit of a Bayern side who are finally finding some consistency. Louis Van Gaal is yet to decide what his best team is, but Bayern are chasing a third straight league win, and they looked in good form as they thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 4-0 in the cup.

After throwing a tantrum and refusing to play for the reserves, Luca Toni is back in favour and form. Miroslav Klose looks to be approaching his predatory best after injury, while the dangerous (but fragile) Arjen Robben is fit for Saturday.

Stuttgart were hit hard by the summer departure of star striker Mario Gomez to Bayern. Their whole attacking set-up last season was geared towards getting the best out of Gomez, and without him they've scored just ten goals in ten matches. How ironic then that a player Vfb relied on so heavily can't nail down a starting place in Bayern's star-studded team.

RECOMMENDATION: Stuttgart have lost five in a row, and I expect that trend to continue, so back an improving Bayern at [1.86]. A 2-0 win for Bayern at [11.5] is also worth a look.

Schalke [2.44] vs Bayer Leverkusen [3.2], the draw [3.5]

Fourth-placed Schalke celebrated last week's dramatic draw with Hamburg as if they had won the Bundesliga, the lottery and the X Factor. I suspect that's because Felix Magath is making his players believe they are genuine title contenders, and a point against the co-leaders was an excellent result. The Royal Blues showed great fighting spirit to come back from 2-0 and 3-2 down, although at times their defending was atrocious.

Including a 3-0 cup win at TSV Munich, Schalke have put together a five-match unbeaten run. They've rattled in 11 goals in the process as well, so confidence is high.

Leaders Bayer are only two points above Schalke, and recent draws against Hamburg and Borussia Dortmund have seen them miss the chance to build a healthy lead at the top.

A knee injury is likely to rule out key midfielder Simon Rolfes, and boss Jupp Heynckes may also be absent through illness, so Bayer may be happy to come away from the Veltins Arena with their unbeaten record intact.

RECOMMENDATION: I can't see Bayer winning, so lay them at [3.2]

Wolfsburg [1.5] vs Mainz [8.0], the draw [4.7]

German champions Wolfsburg are not having a happy time of it at the moment. Last season Felix Magath built a solid unit, with Grafite, Dzeko and Misimovic providing the attacking flair. After winning the title Magath flew the coup to join Schalke, and successor Armin Veh is struggling to live up to expectations.

Last season Wolfsburg conceded just 41 league goals, but just ten games into this campaign they've already shipped 16. Last term they went unbeaten at home in the league, but this time around Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen have both left the Volkswagen Arena with all three points.

There have also been discipline issues. After publicly criticising Veh, Grafite was given the week off to "free his mind." I suspect Magath would have told the Brazilian to "free his mind" in the reserves or on the transfer list.

Mainz go into the match level on points with Wolfsburg. They've only won once on their travels, but it's their performances against the Bundesliga's big boys which lead me to think they could cause an upset. They held leaders Leverkusen to a draw on the opening day, and rookie coach Thomas Tuchel has since inspired them to wins over Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim. I think [8.0] for a Mainz victory is far too generous a price to miss.

RECOMMENDATION: Back Mainz to win at [8.0]

Tags: Arjen Robben, Bayern Munich fixtures, German football bets, German football odds, Grafite footballer, Wolfsburg