Bundesliga Betting: Wobbly Werder may find Cologne tough to beat

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 27 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Torsten Frings is a key man for Werder Bremen

"Werder Bremen are still settling down, and without the injured Naldo their defence looks flimsy. Cologne are much better away than at home, have had all week to prepare, and have a potential match-winner in Podolski. Lay Werder at [1.47]."

Kevin Hatchard takes his regular weekly look at the best bets in the Bundesliga where he has three tips for this weekend's action

Werder Bremen [1.45] vs FC Cologne [8.0], the draw [4.9]

It's been a strange start to the season for Werder Bremen. They were dealt a huge blow before a ball had been kicked, as their best player Mesut Ozil left to become the latest star in the Real Madrid constellation. Ozil's departure has blown a huge hole in Werder's team - he scored nine league goals and set up a further 12 last season.

Without the little maestro Werder made a catastrophic start to their title bid, as they were battered 4-1 at Hoffenheim. Torsten Frings scored a third-minute penalty, but the Bremen defence then evaporated, conceding four goals before half-time.

Werder's displays in the Champions League playoff against Sampdoria were equally curious. They were excellent in the home leg, winning 3-1 and sending Samp back to Genoa with their tails wedged between their legs. They then proceeded to go 3-0 down in the second leg, and would have crashed out had it not been for late goals from Markus Rosenberg and Claudio Pizarro.

Werder's transfer business has been far from convincing. Striker Marko Arnautovic's abrasive attitude has riled coaches and players alike since his arrival from FC Twente, Bremen were priced out of a move for their former star Diego, and the imminent acquisition of creaking defender Mikael Silvestre is less than inspiring.

FC Cologne have been widely tipped to become embroiled in a relegation scrap, with coach Zvonimir Soldo still battling to control the big personalities in his dressing room. Much depends on whether Germany star Lukas Podolski can rediscover his form at club level - he scored just two goals in 27 games last term.

Last week's 3-1 home defeat to newly-promoted Kaiserslautern was an inauspicious start, but that reverse should be put into context. Defender Youssef Mohamad was dismissed after just two minutes, and Cologne were 1-0 up with twenty minutes to go.

It's also worth considering that Cologne are pretty solid away from home. They secured six road wins last term and conceded just 13 goals in 17 away matches, form that pulled them clear of relegation.

Recommendation: Werder are still settling down, and without the injured Naldo their defence looks flimsy. Cologne are much better away than at home, have had all week to prepare, and have a potential match-winner in Podolski. Lay Werder at [1.47].


Stuttgart [2.34] vs Borussia Dortmund [3.25], the draw [3.4]

This is an intriguing match between genuine top-six contenders who both lost their opening matches.

Stuttgart finished last season very strongly under the inspirational guidance of coach Cristian Gross. VfB collected more points than anyone after the winter break to finish sixth and secure a Europa League spot. The loss of German international midfielder Sami Khedira to Real Madrid is a setback, and the acquisition of Wolfsburg's Christian Gentner doesn't fill the void. Stuttgart were below par in last week's 2-0 defeat at Mainz, although things could have been different had Cacau not missed a penalty.

Dortmund had the lion's share of possession in their 2-0 home defeat to Leverkusen, but lacked a cutting edge. BvB had four strikers on by the end of the match, but couldn't find a goal. Coach Jurgen Klopp must decide how to get the best out of star striker Lucas Barrios. Last week he played Shinji Kagawa in behind the Paraguayan, but a traditional front two of Barrios and Robert Lewandowski may work better.

Recommendation: Stuttgart won this fixture 4-1 last time, but I don't expect a repeat. Back a draw between evenly-matched teams at [3.4]


Nurnberg [1.97] vs Freiburg [4.2], the draw [3.6]

It seems early to talk about relegation six-pointers, but the term may well apply here. Freiburg barely avoided the drop last term, while Nurnberg needed to beat Augsburg in a playoff to secure their top-flight status. When judging this game it's worth considering that Nurnberg won just five of their 17 home matches last term. Freiburg beat Nurnberg home and away last season, and of the ten Bundesliga clashes these two have had, Nurnberg have won just three.

Recommendation: I can't understand why a Nurnberg win is so short, especially given Freiburg's recent success against them. Lay Nurnberg at [2.02]