Bundesliga Betting: This year's potential winners can beat last year's winners

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 27 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Mesut Ozil has been in sparkling form this season and has gone a long way to filling the void left by Diego.

Kevin Hatchard tells us why Werder Bremen can go all the way this year and are good value to pick up three points this week and keep up their good run. Plus the best of the rest from the exciting world of Bundesliga betting.

"Not only do Werder have the league’s most prolific attack, but they also boast the Bundesliga’s best defence. Centre-back pairing Naldo and Per Mertesacker have been particularly solid, and just ten goals have been conceded in 13 league matches."

Mainz [3.0] vs Hamburg [2.5], the draw [3.6]

Hamburg boss Bruno Labbadia is presumably trying to think of how many ladders he's walked under recently, and I suspect he's also checking the condition of the mirrors in his house. He may also be orchestrating the removal of all black cats from the city. Labbadia must have picked up a jinx from somewhere, because Hamburg have one of the worst injury crises in Europe.

Key forwards Mladen Petric and Paolo Guerrero have fallen victim to serious knee injuries this term, as have defenders Alex Silva, Collin Benjamin and Miroslav Stepanek. Influential Brazilian midfielder Ze Roberto is the curse's latest victim - he could be out for months after tearing ankle ligaments.

Such an interminable injury list was always going to catch up with Hamburg at some stage, and their title challenge is starting to unravel. Home defeats to struggling Borussia Monchengladbach and Bochum have been the lowlights of a five-match winless run, and Labbadia's side are four points off the title pace in fifth position.

Newly-promoted Mainz have exceeded expectations, and are just a point and a place behind Hamburg. They are unbeaten at home this term, winning five of six Bundesliga matches at the Stadion am Bruchweg. No-one in the league has collected more points at home than Thomas Tuchel's men.

Mainz also have no qualms about taking on the Bundesliga's big guns. They've beaten Bayern Munich and Hoffenheim, and secured impressive draws against Wolfsburg, Borussia Dortmund and the leaders Bayer Leverkusen.

RECOMMENDATION:

Mainz have the league's best home record, and Hamburg are struggling, so back Mainz to win at [3.0]

Werder Bremen [1.82] vs Wolfsburg [4.7], the draw [4.0]

Second-placed Werder Bremen are serious title contenders. Last week's 6-0 demolition of Freiburg was a statement of intent, with midfield dynamo Mesut Ozil on sparkling form. Despite the loss of Brazilian superstar Diego to Juventus in the summer, coach Thomas Schaaf has been able to use the likes of Ozil and Marco Marin to plug the creativity gap.

Not only do Werder have the league's most prolific attack, but they also boast the Bundesliga's best defence. Centre-back pairing Naldo and Per Mertesacker have been particularly solid, and just ten goals have been conceded in 13 league matches.

Conversely, Wolfsburg have had defensive problems all season, and they were at their clownish worst in last weekend's 3-2 home defeat to relegation-threatened Nurnberg. The defending for Nurnberg's winner was reminiscent of a park kickabout's dying moments, as everyone piles forward for a last stab at glory before going home.

The champions have shipped 23 league goals, and at the other end star striker Edin Dzeko appears distracted by talk of a January switch to AC Milan. The Bosnian missed an absolute sitter against Nurnberg, and hasn't scored a Bundesliga goal for two months.

Wolfsburg's physical and mental strength will also have been sapped by a long midweek Champions League trip to CSKA Moscow, a game they lost 2-1.

RECOMMENDATION: I can't see anything but a Werder win here. Back them at [1.82], and with a great attack against a terrible defence it's worth backing over 3.5 goals at [2.4] as well

Hertha Berlin [2.12] vs Eintracht Frankfurt [3.9], the draw [3.6]

This strikes me as one of the value bets of the weekend. Hertha put in an improved display in the recent 1-1 draw at Stuttgart, but it was against a struggling team with a dreadful home record. Hertha are still rock bottom after a 12-match winless run, and a storming revival looks a long way off.

11th-placed Eintracht Frankfurt aren't in great form, but they have at least won two of their last five matches. They would also have avoided last week's 2-1 defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach if they'd shown more composure in front of goal. Eintracht do have problems in attack with talismanic striker Ioannis Amanatidis injured, but they should still have too much for the league's worst team.

RECOMMENDATION:

I can't quite believe Eintracht Frankfurt are [3.9] to win away to a team with just five points from 13 matches. It's far too big a price to miss out on, so back Eintracht to win at [3.9]

Tags: Bundesliga bet, Bundesliga betting, Diego Juventus, football previews, German football, Werder Bremen