German Football / Razhan Miran / 07 August 2009 / Leave a comment

It's been a long old summer for Razhan Miran without his Bundesliga fix but the wait is over, he talks us through all the summer transfer news and managerial changes ahead of the weekend's opening fixtures.

"At [1.66] Bayern seem short in such an unpredictable league. However it would take a brave punter to lay that, because I have no doubt in my mind that come May, Van Gaal would have done what he always does, and that’s win titles."

Recently, I was asked by a former member of the German football association, why I write about the Bundesliga. Without thought, my lips promptly broke the brief silence with "I've been a fan ever since the Dortmund team of the mid-nineties....Matthias Sammer and co". Satisfied with my knee-jerk response, I went away thinking a little harder about Mr. Krannich's question. Why do I write about it?

Considering the supposed best league in Europe is my birthright, and La Liga gets about as much coverage on Sky as the Premier league, surely trying to make out twenty-two obscure blobs on an intermittent internet stream would seem misguided. And after last years' lottery of a championship, it wasn't as if the Bundesliga was particularly profitable to the betting man - albeit because of Bayern's erratic form.

And then Friday came. As a student, there is nothing particularly special about this day. In fact it is one of my least favoured days, with pubs overcrowded with suits, nobody willing to play football, and work at Betfair the next day. However upon waking up, and engaging in a series of back stretches usually reserved for those well beyond my years, I noticed the bright yellow sticker on my 09/10 Norwegian Tippeligaen Players to Watch calendar. "Wolfsburg Vs Stuttgart - Bundesliga curtain raiser" it said in bold red, yellow and black.

Suddenly I felt a great excitement and almost nervousness about what may ensue at the Volkswagen Arena that night. Indeed the German league is back, and along with it, a host of goals, a fiery atmosphere, and of course most importantly, unpredictability, which makes it the most watchable league in Europe.

And so this is where I come in. To guide you through the betting strategies, winners and losers, of what will hopefully be another successful campaign.

Once again, managerial changes have grabbed most of the headlines, with no less than nine changes in the German top flight. The Dutch master Louis Van Gaal takes over at Bayern, after an awe inspiring season with AZ Alkmaar, leading the minnows to Eredivisie success. Failure at Bayern usually proceeds a summer of spending, and this pre-season has been no exception. The Bundesliga goalscoring sensation Mario Gomez has been brought in for a record fee of €30m, as well as a further outlay of €20m on the likes of Anatoliy Tymoshchuk and Danijel Pranjic, who will all be key figures in Van Gaal's revolution. Ivica Olic also comes on a free from Hamburg. However, Bayern's adamant stance on the Franck Ribery transfer saga seems to have been their best bit of business, with the brilliant Frenchman all but condemned to at least one more season at the Allianz.

Felix Magath's decision to leave champions Wolfsburg and join financially struggling Schalke has been the most surprising. The Wolves, now under the leadership of ex-Stuttgart coach Armin Veh, have not only managed to keep their best players, but have certainly improved the squad with the likes of Obafemi Martins, Thomas Kahlenberg, and the technically gifted Karim Ziani. A second assault on the title may be aiming a little too high, especially with Champions League commitments but they do seem better placed to deal with these pressures than Stuttgart were after their 2007 title success.

Schalke on the other hand stay very much the same, and will be heavily reliant on Magath's tactical nous to keep them challenging. In contrast, rookie Markus Babbel will be hoping to continue where his side left off last year, clinching a Champions League spot after a phenomenal run of form in the second half of the season. They have of course lost their most potent goal threat Gomez. However, for €30m, that could be excellent business. New arrivals in Pavel Pogrebnyak, and old boy Alexander Hleb will surely go a long way in patching up the hole left by Gomez, although neither will bring in the goals that the big man did.

Bruno Labaddia's shock appointment at the helm of Hamburg brings with it a similar aura as was around the club last summer. More exciting players have been brought it including promising winger Eljero Elia, Euro under-21 star Marcus Berg, David Rozehnal, and the experienced Ze Roberto returns for a second stint. Labaddia leaves what was initially a long term project at Bayer Leverkusen, who have themselves appointed the experienced Jupp Heynckes as coach. However without the investment required to propel them to the heights of years gone by, they could struggle to make a serious impact in the upper quartile.

If loyalty has a home in the Bundesliga, the Weserstadion seems to be it. Thomas Schaaf prepares for his tenth season in charge of Werder Bremen, and after last year's tenth place finish, knows that he must deliver. And if he does it will be without his best player Diego, who joined Juventus earlier this summer for a fee of €24.5m. Without the great Brazilian they were awful, and seeing as though he missed most of the year, his transfer to Serie A could be a blessing in disguise. German sensation Marko Marin joins the superb Mesut Ozil in what looks to be a frighteningly talented attacking pair. Tim Borowski returns after a failed period with Bayern, and striker Marcelo Moreno Martins comes in on loan from Shakhter Donetsk.

At [1.66] Bayern seem short in such an unpredictable league. However it would take a brave punter to lay that, because I have no doubt in my mind that come May, Van Gaal would have done what he always does, and that's win titles. Any other activity in the Bundesliga winners' market should be with an eye to trade, and with this in mind Werder Bremen at [18.0] and Stuttgart at [20.0] are worth getting involved in. Laying such big prices in long term markets are never recommended, but Schalke at [14.0] are far too short, and should in no way be considered second favorites.

My top 6:

1. Bayern Munich
2. Stuttgart
3. Werder Bremen
4. Hamburg
5. Schalke
6. Wolfsburg

If last year taught us anything, it is that betting in the Bundesliga should reflect form. Momentum plays a great role in a league such as this and the Dutch, where the majority of teams are at a similar level. Thus, in general, opening weekends should be more about learning than betting. However if you are like me, and cannot help but get involved, then these are the recommendations for week 1.

Wolfsburg Vs Stuttgart - Wolfsburg lay at [2.02]
Hoffenheim Vs Bayern Munich - Bayern back at [2.0]
Mainz Vs Leverkusen - Leverkusen lay at [2.06]