Bundesliga Betting: Bremen to put the brakes on Bayer

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 19 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Tim Borowski continues to be a key player for Werder Bremen

"Bayer aren’t winning enough games away from home, and they may well find life tough against a Bremen side who have found their feet after a rough patch. Back the draw at [3.6]."

Kevin Hatchard attempts to continue his good run of tipping form and kicks off this week's column with his reasoning as to why Bayer Leverkusen's trip to Werder Bremen is likely to finish with a share of the spoils.

Werder Bremen [2.24] vs Bayer Leverkusen [3.45], the draw [3.6]

Bayer Leverkusen are still top of the Bundesliga on goal difference and still unbeaten, but they are under relentless pressure from a Bayern Munich side who've won every single match they've played since the top two drew 1-1 at the Allianz Arena on November 22nd.

Many believe that Jupp Heynckes' young side will crack eventually, but at the moment they're coping admirably with the stresses and strains of the title race. Last weekend's 2-1 home win over Wolfsburg (shameless trumpet-blowing alert - that scoreline was predicted in last week's column) was a fine result against a dangerous opponent. Swiss striker Eren Derdiyok was particularly impressive, and it was his aerial power that ultimately contributed to the winning goal.

Bayer have the best home record in the division, with eight wins and four draws. However, the team's form away from the BayArena is a growing cause for concern. They've won just four times on the road, and have been held to a draw on seven occasions. Admittedly most teams would kill for an unbeaten away record this deep into the season, but with a merciless Bavarian juggernaut looming large in the rear-view mirror, Bayer have precious little margin for error.

Werder Bremen saw their title dreams shattered by a recent five-match losing streak, but Thomas Schaaf's side have stabilised their season with two Bundesliga wins on the spin. A 2-1 success at home to Hertha Berlin was somewhat patchy, but last week's 5-1 pummelling of hapless Hannover made the league sit up and take notice. Werder could have racked up double figures, and they showed why they have the third best attack in the league. They average two goals a game, hitting the net 44 times in 22 matches.

Werder striker Claudio Pizarro appears to have rediscovered his touch in front of goal, scoring in each of his last three matches. Diminutive string-puller Marko Marin has also shown glimpses of his effervescent best, carving teams open with skill and vision.

RECOMMENDATION: Bayer aren't winning enough games away from home, and they may well find life tough against a Bremen side who have found their feet after a rough patch. Back the draw at [3.6]

Freiburg [2.64] vs Hertha Berlin [2.94], the draw [3.4]

If Hertha Berlin are to pull off one of the greatest displays of escapology the Bundesliga has ever seen, this is the kind of they game they have to win. Hertha are rock bottom with 12 points, and they are seven points behind Freiburg who are hovering just a place above the relegation zone.

Hertha have shored up their defence in recent weeks, conceding just three goals in five league matches. Despite this improvement coach Freidhelm Funkel is coming under severe pressure, with the club from the capital recording just one league win since he took charge in October. That was a 3-0 victory at Hannover, who are sinking without trace under Mirko Slomka.

Funkel can at least take some comfort from the fact that Sunday's hosts have the worst home record in the top flight. They've won just one out of ten at the Badenova Stadion, and they've lost six. They've also scored just five goals in front of their own fans, a statistic to make the football gods weep.

Freiburg's overall recent record isn't much better - they've taken just three points from their last eight matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Freiburg are useless at home, Hertha are hopeless away. Hertha have however shown a tiny bit more promise in recent weeks, so back them to win at [2.94]. It'll be a tense and ugly affair, so back under 2.5 goals at [1.85] as well.

Nurnberg [9.4] vs Bayern Munich [1.41], the draw [4.7]

Bayern are flying and Nurnberg are second bottom, so at [1.41] there's no value in backing Bayern to win. However, I don't think Louis van Gaal's men will rattle in as many goals as people think. They had a tough Champions League game against Fiorentina in midweek, and Nurnberg have only conceded 15 goals in ten home matches. No-one in the bottom half has conceded fewer goals at home. Back under 2.5 goals at [2.54]