Bundesliga Betting: Bayern woes open up title race

German Football / Ben Lyttleton / 24 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Van Gaal is another reason why laying Bayern at [2.56] could be the bet to make: undoubtedly a genius coach, the Dutchman's people skills have sometimes let him down in the past."

Winless in their first three fixtures, Bayern Munich have made another poor start to the season. But as well as their own problems, Luis Van Gaal's men are now competing against quality oppostion in the Bundesliga, says Ben Lyttleton.

Does anyone know the German for déjà vu? This time last year, Bayern Munich were struggling after their worst start to a league season in 31 years under new coach Jurgen Klinsmann. By the time they fell short in the title race - though crucially, they scrambled a Champions League place on the last day of the season - Klinsmann had been ousted and Louis van Gaal agreed to take over.

Van Gaal oversaw a huge summer spend, which was reminiscent of how Bayern reacted to finishing fourth in 2006-07: back then, the board raided their savings account, and splashed out €25m on Franck Ribery, €15m on Miroslav Klose and €11m on Luca Toni, whose €10m-per-year contract made him the world's best-paid player.

This summer, the recruitment was similarly impressive: in came Mario Gomez, for €30m, already [4.6] to finish top-scorer, Anatoliy Tymoschuk, €14m, and free agents Daniel Pranjic and Ivica Olic.

All four played in the weekend's defeat at Mainz, a result that has left Bayern in 13th position and winless in their first three games of the season. Of course it is too early to write off a squad as strong as Bayern's is - and they are still big favourites at [2.52] - but the problems seem to run deeper than just a wobbly start.

After all, the biggest transfer story at Bayern over the summer was one that never happened: the proposed departure of Franck Ribery, to Real Madrid, Chelsea or even Manchester United. The player was said to favour a move to Spain though never publicly said as much while Bayern have dug in their heels and insisted only an €80m transfer fee would seal a deal.

Ribery was missing, injured, for Bayern at Mainz but last week when he came on as a substitute in the draw at Werder Bremen, he did make an impact, though not necessarily in the right way. Van Gaal has asked the Frenchman to play at the top of a midfield diamond, although Ribery himself has said he would prefer to play on the left; sure enough, after about one minute in the middle, he moved out wide. According to newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, Ribery, "avoided the middle as if he believed it full of pitfalls like in the jungle of New Guinea, with spears, snakes and other vermin".

Unsurprisingly for the club nicknamed FC Hollywood, Ribery's position has snowballed into a major issue with all the major players having their say: Franz Beckenbauer wants Ribery out left, while Uli Hoeness has said that if Ribery wants to be thought of in the same breath as Lionel Messi, Zinidiene Zidane and other greats, he has to move to the middle. For the sake of Bayern's season, a resolution has to come soon: and with Van Gaal in charge it could be explosive.

The Dutchman is another reason why laying Bayern at [2.56] could be the bet to make: undoubtedly a genius coach, Van Gaal's people skills have sometimes let him down in the past, and while he was a success as the undoubted top man at AZ Alkmaar, having his authority and ideas questioned by members of the Bayern board may not suit him so well. As he himself says: "I talk to players every day and learn something new every day, and as leader of the team it's my job to decide on the course to be taken: I then expect everyone to support the course in public because to do otherwise is simply asking for problems."

Aside from the long-standing problem that goalkeeper Michael Rensing is a far from adequate replacement for Oliver Kahn, that Ze Roberto is missed in midfield and that neither captain Mark van Bommel (currently injured) nor his deputy Philipp Lahm have shown great leadership skills, there is one other key factor in this year's Bundesliga: the strength of the teams around them.

This season there are at least six sides who could conceivably call themselves title contenders: last year's surprise champions Wolfsburg have added tactical variations, and Obafemi Martins, to their successful campaign last year while even Schalke, with an average group of players, can challenge under the guidance of Felix Magath. There's also Stuttgart, Bremen, and free-scoring Leverkusen but perhaps the biggest threat this year will come from Bruno Labbadia's Hamburg, who destroyed Wolfsburg 4-2 on Sunday, and have strength in depth that could even leave Bayern envious.

Whenever Bayern show weakness, the league opens up and we could see a repeat of last season's thriller, when three teams could have won the title on the final day. One thing seems sure, though: Van Gaal has a tough time ahead of him.

Recommended bets:

Lay Bayern for the title at [2.56]
Back Hamburg for the title at [7.0]