Bundesliga Betting: Bayern to be stopped in their tracks again

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 25 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mario Gomez of Bayern Munich

"Van Nistelrooy may play some part in this match, and if he does Hamburg are capable of extending their five-match unbeaten run. Back the draw at an overpriced [4.6]"

Kevin Hatchard is back to talk us through the best betting opportunities in the Bundesliga this weekend, including why Ruud Van Nistelrooy's Hamburg can deny league favourites Bayern Munich another three more points.

Schalke [2.1] vs Borussia Dortmund [4.2], the draw [3.4]

The Ruhr derby is one of the most eagerly awaited fixtures on the calendar, and with both teams performing well there's an added frisson this time around.

Schalke are still in the title hunt, four points behind joint-leaders Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. They would have been in an even better position, had it not been for a late collapse in last week's 2-1 defeat at Wolfsburg. It was a disastrous return to the Volkswagen Arena for Schalke coach Felix Magath, who led Wolfsburg to the title last season. The Royal Blues led with 19 minutes remaining, but then German international goalkeeper Manuel Neuer made a rare error, misjudging a cross to allow Grafite to head home. The burly Brazilian then smashed in a stunning winner to end Schalke's eight-match unbeaten run.

Notwithstanding that blip, Schalke are still a formidable outfit. They have the best defence in the Bundesliga, conceding just 17 goals in 23 matches. Despite his recent howler goalkeeper Neuer has performed superbly this term, and he's many pundits' tip to be Germany's number one at the World Cup. Young defender Benedikt Howedes has fully repaid Magath's faith in him with some assured displays, and the decision to convert midfielder Lukas Schmitz into an attacking left-back has proved inspired.

Schalke have been particularly miserly at home recently, and they haven't conceded a league goal at the Veltins Arena since October 31. In eight of their 12 home matches, Magath's men have kept eight clean sheets. Schalke's problem is in attack, where they rely too heavily on Kevin Kuranyi and Jefferson Farfan. No-one else in the squad has scored more than two league goals.

Borussia Dortmund are fifth, and have ambitions to qualify for the Champions League. A three-match losing run derailed BVB's title bid, but they returned to form last week by thrashing Hannover 4-1. However, no-one should get carried away by that result. Hannover are the worst team in the league at the moment, and I'm fairly confident that I could round up some players from my regular Finchley eight-a-side (including twinkle-toed League One columnist Alan Dudman) and give them a decent game.

The recent return from injury of goalkeeper Roman Wiedenfeller has been a boost, but the defence still had some shaky moments last week.

RECOMMENDATION: Schalke have been superb at home, and I'm not convinced that Borussia Dortmund have recovered from their post-Christmas slump. Back Schalke to win at [2.1]

Bayern Munich [1.52] vs Hamburg [7.2], the draw [4.6]

Bayern Munich's winning run finally came to an end last week, as they were held to a 1-1 draw at lowly Nurnberg. The Bavarians turned in a lethargic display, and appeared drained by their Champions League efforts against Fiorentina. Louis van Gaal will have been perturbed by his side's inability to create clear-cut chances against a side in the bottom three, but at least his side are still level on points with leaders Bayer Leverkusen.

After a season plagued by injury, 4th-placed Hamburg are getting some players back. The key to their success may well be whether they can keep star signing Ruud Van Nistelrooy fit. Two weeks ago the Dutchman scored twice in a superb 3-1 win at resurgent Stuttgart, but was then sidelined for a goalless draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. In his absence Markus Berg and Mladen Petric missed glaring opportunities.

RECOMMENDATION: Van Nistelrooy may play some part in this match, and if he does Hamburg are capable of extending their five-match unbeaten run. Back the draw at an overpriced [4.6]

Bayer Leverkusen [1.4] vs FC Cologne [9.4], the draw [5.2]

Bayer missed the chance to go clear at the top last week, twice blowing a lead in a 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen. However, I fully expect them to return to winning ways against a Cologne side who were obliterated 5-1 at home by Stuttgart last time out. Central defenders Youssef Mohamad and Geromel were feeble, and Cologne have shipped an alarming 16 goals in their last six matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Bayer played some excellent attacking football against Werder, and I expect them to mangle Cologne's powder-puff rearguard. Back over 3.5 goals at [2.78]