Bundesliga Betting: Bayer to lose further ground

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 05 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jupp Heynckes has admitted his side would settle for finishing second in the Bundesliga this year

"It’s not all doom and gloom for Bayer. They’re still unbeaten 24 games into the season, a Bundesliga record. However, I think they’re starting to feel the relentless pressure that Bayern are exerting, and they are only two points ahead of third-placed Schalke."

Bayer Leverkusen were held to a goalless draw last week and lost their spot at the top of the table. They may well struggle again this weekend, says Kevin Hatchard. Kevin's column is currently running at a profit of 31.69 points.

Nurnberg [5.6] vs Bayer Leverkusen [1.72], the draw [4.0]

Last weekend saw a big psychological shift in the race for the Bundesliga title. After 16 weeks at the summit Bayer Leverkusen lost their grip on top spot to Bayern Munich, who went two points clear.

Bayer fell behind the Bavarians courtesy of an insipid goalless draw at home to FC Cologne, an extraordinary result when you consider that Cologne had just been battered 5-1 by Stuttgart.

Bayer coach Jupp Heynckes admitted his side buckled under the weight of expectation, and he alarmingly suggested that finishing second to Bayern would be no disgrace. That strangely negative statement was in stark contrast to the comments of Bayern's Louis van Gaal, who said he'd happily put money on his side to win the title.

It's not all doom and gloom for Bayer. They're still unbeaten 24 games into the season, a Bundesliga record. However, I think they're starting to feel the relentless pressure that Bayern are exerting, and they are only two points ahead of third-placed Schalke.

Bayer could lose further ground this Sunday, as they visit a Nurnberg side fighting for their lives in the bottom three. Dieter Hecking's troops stopped Bayern Munich's long winning streak two weeks ago, drawing 1-1 at the EasyCredit Stadion, and they followed that up with a battling goalless draw at Bochum.

Nurnberg goalkeeper Raphael Schafer is on excellent form, and his team have conceded just 16 league goals at home in 11 matches. The loss of suspended top scorer Albert Bunjaku is a blow, but that will make Nurnberg even more determined not to give anything away at the back. Bayer have won just four out of 12 away games, and it's fair to conclude that they might come up short once again.

RECOMMENDATION: Bayer have consistently failed to deliver away from home this season, and I'm not convinced they can break down a Nurnberg side who are scrapping to survive. Back the draw at [4.0]

Werder Bremen [2.04] vs Stuttgart [3.95], the draw [3.75]

This is an attractive fixture between two top-eight sides in good form. Werder have recovered from a mid-season slump, and key players like Mesut Ozil and Claudio Pizarro are back on form. Last week Werder made progress in the Europa League by thrashing FC Twente 4-1, and they became the first team to beat Mainz at home in the league this season. That 2-1 victory should however be put into context, as Mainz were reduced to ten men after just 14 minutes.

Werder's Achilles' heel at the moment is their shaky defence. They were miserly in the first half of the campaign, but they haven't kept a clean sheet in the Bundesliga since December 6. Goalkeeper Tim Wiese lost his form because of a niggling back injury, and his replacement Christian Vander is rusty after making just nine league appearances in five seasons. Centre-back Naldo appears to have lost his internal satnav, and he had a torrid time against Mainz's Aristide Bance last week.

Stuttgart are making excellent progress under Christian Gross, winning seven of their nine league matches since he took charge. The Swiss coach has unlocked the Swabians' attacking potential, and striker Cacau is in the form of his life. The Brazil-born German international has scored six goals in his last two matches, and he also found the net against Barcelona in the Champions League.

When these two meet there are usually goals galore - their last ten league meetings have seen an average of four goals per game.

RECOMMENDATION: This should be a cracker between two evenly matched teams, with attack dominating defence. Back the draw at [3.75], and back over 3.5 goals at [2.6]

Freiburg [2.36] vs Hannover [3.4], the draw [3.45]

This is a massive game, with Freiburg fourth-bottom and Hannover second-bottom after a run of nine straight defeats. Freiburg have the division's worst home record, collecting just one win and five goals in 11 games. Freiburg haven't won in ten matches, Hannover haven't won in 13. It has dire draw written all over it.

RECOMMENDATION: I'd rather have invasive surgery than sit through this. Back the draw at [3.45], and under 2.5 goals at [1.95]