Ligue 1 Betting: Back news boss Galtier to continue St Etienne revival

French Football / James Eastham / 27 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Former France U21 winger Dimitri Payet (green and white) has flourished since St Etienne's change of management

Recommended bets: PSG v Lyon over 2.5 goals @ 2.12; Montpellier v Marseille over 2.5 goals @ 2.44; St Etienne +0.5 Asian handicap at Auxerre @ 2.05.

After more winning tips on the Coupe de France last weekend - 2.55pts profit from 12pts staked in that competition so far - it's back to the league, where James Eastham is looking to increase his profit. Best bet: Back St Etienne +0.5 Asian handicap at Auxerre @ [2.05].

Lyon (5th) v PSG (11th) over 2.5 goals @ [2.12] (Sunday, 8pm)

Lyon spent a record 70m euro on new players last summer, but only 15m euro of that went on a defender (left-back Aly Cissokho). Little wonder attack has been their best defence all season.

Four of Lyon's five games since the turn of the year have had over 2.5 goals (average three goals a game). Cris, their best centre-half, is not the player he was, leaving Hugo Lloris overworked in goal.

Like Lyon, PSG are better going forward than defending. Neither of their first-choice centre-halves, Zoumana Camara and Mamadou Sakho, ranks among the best 10 in the division, and the absence of Gregory Coupet and possibly Apoula Edel, their number one and two goalkeepers, adds to their troubles this weekend. If Edel is out - he faces a fitness test on Saturday - Willy Grondin, PSG's number three goalkeeper, who has made just 18 Ligue 1 appearances during a 12-year career, will start.

At the other end, Mevlut Erding (11 goals in 19 games) and Guillaume Hoarau (who scored last weekend on his return to PSG's starting line-up after a three-and-a-half month absence) increase the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.

Back over 2.5 goals at [2.12].

Montpellier (2nd) v Marseille (4th) over 2.5 goals @ [2.44] (Saturday, 8pm)

Just eight months after winning promotion to the top flight, Montpellier lie second in Ligue 1.

Their success is down to a settled 4-3-3 line-up (eight players have started 80% or more of their games), plain-speaking coach Rene Girard and Louis Nicollin, one of the greatest club presidents in French football history. Nicollin's contributions to their remarkable season are too numerous to list here, but the decision to appoint Girard as a replacement for jail-bound Rolland Courbis last summer was a masterstroke.

Montpellier concede more goals when veteran centre-half Nenad Dzodic is missing, as he will be this weekend. Marseille will be without Gabriel Heinze (thigh) and Taye Taiwo (African Nations Cup), increasing the chances of goals for the home side as well.

Marseille will play to win as they trail league leaders Bordeaux by 11pts (with a game in hand). Montpellier, one of the division's best home sides, have failed to score in only two of 10 Stade de la Mosson matches this season: against Bordeaux (0-1), the division's class act, and Nancy (0-2), in a match played behind closed doors.

I expected over 2.5 goals at evens, so [2.44] was a pleasant surprise. Back overs at generous odds.

St Etienne (17th) +0.5 Asian handicap at Auxerre (7th) (Sunday, 4pm)

Christophe Galtier has made a good start as St Etienne manager. Just 40 days after his appointment, les Verts produced their most convincing display of the season to thrash Lorient 4-1 in the Coupe de France last Sunday.

Galtier is drawing the best from his players. Dimitri Payet and Bakary Soro, peripheral figures under Galtier's predecessor, Alain Perrin, are now decisive. The France U21 internationals have contributed three goals and three assists between them in St Etienne's last three games.

Auxerre's last home win was on November 21 v Monaco (2-0). Since then they've drawn twice and lost once in the league on their own patch and needed penalties to get past Ligue 2 opponents Sedan in the Coupe de France on Tuesday night (1-1). Seven first-teamers started that match, so Auxerre will be tired this weekend.

I expect St Etienne to get at least a point. Back the visitors with a +0.5-goal start on the Asian handicap at [2.05].

* James Eastham has made 3.78pts profit (after 5% commission) from 38pts staked (10.9% ROI) on Ligue 1 games this season and 5.21pts profit from 17pts staked on 'best bets' (30.6% ROI).