Ligue 1 Betting: Why Rennes will deal a blow to Lyon's title hopes

French Football / James Eastham / 26 November 2009 / Leave a comment

All smiles: Ghana international Asamoah Gyan is a contender to be Ligue 1's leading goalscorer this season

Bettors have been in love with Lyon all season long, but the prices on Claude Puel's side to beat any team put in front of them are increasingly difficult to justify, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Rennes +1 Asian handicap at Lyon @ [1.91].

Recommended bet: Back Rennes +1 Asian handicap at Lyon @ 1.91; Back Marseille to win the Ligue 1 title at 4.0 (if you didn't lay Lyon ante-post @ 2.50).

Lyon (3rd) v Rennes (10th) (Sunday, 8pm UK time)

Lyon's 1-0 defeat at Fiorentina in midweek doesn't immediately affect their Champions League future as they've already qualified for the knock-out stages, but la Viola's 1-0 win allowed the Italians to leapfrog Lyon into top spot of the group, which may leave Claude Puel's side facing a trickier tie at the last-16 stage next February.

Lyon's limp performance in Florence followed the pattern of their recent displays. They drew away to local rivals and bottom club Grenoble last weekend, after playing out a thrilling but mistake-riddled 5-5 draw against Marseille before the international break. "Lyon are not a proper team," exclaimed French sports daily L'Equipe after Lyon let slip a one-goal lead against Grenoble last weekend. It was hard not to disagree.

Rennes are a difficult side to read, but have enough physical power to avoid being bullied on this trip to Stade de Gerland. Last weekend's 2-1 over lowly Le Mans included wobbly moments, but the quality of attackers such as Ismael Bangoura, Moussa Sow, seven-goal top scorer Asamoah Gyan and outstanding left-sided midfielder Sylvain Marveaux, who should be a candidate for a place in France's World Cup squad, will give Lyon's defenders plenty of problems.

I'm not confident enough about Rennes' chances of earning a point to back the draw at [4.0], but I'd be surprised to see Rennes lose by more than one goal. That's why I'm backing the Bretons with a +1-goal start on the Asian handicap at [1.91].

Outright Ligue 1 title odds update

All season I've maintained that the 2009-10 Ligue 1 title race is a three-horse affair and the league standings support that view. Bordeaux and Lyon have 25pts each from 13 games, while Marseille are three points behind on 22pts but have a game in hand. They face struggling Sochaux next Wednesday.

In other words, you can barely slip a piece of paper between the teams. Yet Marseille continue to be obvious outsiders. Lyon are [2.42], Bordeaux [3.4] and Marseille [4.0].

Why is this? No idea. If anything, Marseille are the side with the greatest scope for improvement during the second-half of the season as they underwent the greatest change over the summer.

My ante-post title recommendation was to lay Lyon at [2.50]. If you didn't follow that advice, back Marseille now at [4.0].

* James Eastham has made 20.06pts profit (after 5% commission) from 112pts staked (17.9% ROI) on French Ligue 1 games and outright markets on betting.betfair.com, including 3.06pts profit (9.88% ROI) from 31pts staked on best bets.