Ligue 1 Betting: Valenciennes enter the Lyon's Den

French Football / James Eastham / 27 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

French Champions Lyon are in imperious form and high on confidence after their midweek win at Fiorentina. This weekend Valenciennes have the unenviable task of getting in their way, an encounter which according to James Easthem, will provide only one result.

Few mismatches in Europe this season will be as stark as Valenciennes' trip to face champions Lyon at Stade de Gerland on Saturday evening (6pm kick-off). Claude Puel's home side, five points clear at the top, have won six and drawn one of seven matches at their own venue this season. Their last defeat on home soil came more than a year ago, when they lost 3-1 to Marseille. Since then their stats are an excellent - W14-D4-L0 - in front of their own fans.

Valenciennes, in contrast, are the less-than-proud owners of the longest winless streak on the road in France. Their last victory away from home came 15 months ago when they beat Lorient 3-1 on 28 August 2007. Since that triumph Antoine Kombouare's side's record reads a dismal W0-D5-L18.

The chances of an upset, then, are slim as first plays 19th - but Lyon's likely superiority is reflected in their price of [1.26]. The hosts are [2.08] with a -1.75-goal start on the Asian handicap, but this would be a risky selection on a team that historically has been happy to settle for a narrow margin of victory.

Nancy may wonder why they're as long as [1.91] to win at home to St Etienne on Sunday afternoon (4pm). Pablo Correa's hosts, lying 15th, may be far from the force they were when they finished fourth last season, but the price is still remarkably generous against visitors who arrive as Ligue 1's bottom side, have picked up just one point from a possible 21 on the road and have lost seven straight league games.

Despite their rather disappointing league position, Nancy remain difficult to beat on home soil - they have won two and drawn six of eight games, making them the only side outside of the top six with an unbeaten home record. The high draw rate puts me off backing the Alsatians, but certainly St Etienne's chances of winning appear minimal.

Lille will be looking to continue their excellent run of form when they host Lorient at Stade Metropole on Saturday evening (6pm). 'LOSC', as they're also known, have lost just one of their last 12 league games and came within seconds of earning a deserved win over Marseille last weekend only for Boudewijn Zenden to equalise for l'OM with an injury-time free-kick to make the score 2-2.

At home, however, Lille have won five and drawn one of six games since an unexpected 3-1 defeat at the hands of Le Mans on August 16. Christian Gourcuff's visitors will be no pushovers - they have won four of their last six games, and boast a clever little striker in Kevin Gameiro, their four-goal joint-top scorer who often raises his game on the big occasions - however they will struggle to contain the might of Lille's excellent five-man midfield, arguably the best in France. I was expecting to find Lille a little longer than [1.66] however, so unless the home side's price increases, I'll leave this game alone.

Perhaps the best betting opportunity on a weekend where opportunity appear few and far between comes at Stade Leon-Bollee when Le Mans host Caen on Saturday evening (6pm). This is a meeting between two teams who try to play entertaining football whenever possible - Le Mans boss Yves Bertucci has created one of the best counter-attacking sides in France and his opposite number at Caen, Franck Dumas, is one of the few that allows his midfielders to flood forward and support their lone striker - Steve Savidan - to the detriment of defensive duties.

The attitude of both coaches is reflected in their teams' goals tallies - eight of Le Mans' 15 and six of Caen's 15 matches have had over 2.5 goals this season, making overs around [2.2]. Caen's games have become lower-scoring recently - each of their last five has had under 2.5 goals - but I expect plenty of scoring opportunities this weekend, for the simple reason that Le Mans are looking to bounce back from a 3-0 defeat at Monaco last weekend and tend to play more enterprisingly when needing to recover from a setback. I feel the price of [2.32] on overs is just about worth taking - and this my only bet of a peculiarly quiet weekend.

* James Eastham has made 6.49pts profit from 38.5pts staked (16.9% ROI) on French clubs in all competitions this season.

Recommended bets:
Le Mans v Caen over 2.5 goals [2.32]