Ligue 1 betting: Toulouse underrated and overpriced for their trip to Marseille

French Football / James Eastham / 27 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Local hero: Toulouse' outstanding striker Andre-Pierre Gignac faces the team he supported as a boy on Saturday night

Recommended bets: Lay Marseille at home to Toulouse @ 1.65; back Nice to beat Le Mans @ 2.06.

Toulouse picked up a point at Marseille's Stade Velodrome last season and are fully capable of doing at least as well when they face l'OM this weekend, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Lay Marseille v Toulouse at [1.65].

BETTING UPDATE: Our winning recommendation on Bordeaux v Le Mans last weekend (over 2.5 goals at 1.98) means we've now had six winners from 10 'best bets' this season, earning us a 3.72pt profit (after 5% commission) from 10pts staked (37.2% ROI).

On to this weekend's recommendations:

Marseille v Toulouse (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

Why do bookies and exchange players consistently underrate Toulouse? We backed them to get something from their trip to Lyon on September 26 only for a late Bafetimbi Gomis goal to earn l'OL (1.48 to win) a barely-deserved victory. Yet, far from learning from that match, or Toulouse's 2-2 draw at Marseille's Stade Velodrome last season, bettors and layers have priced up this game as though it's a foregone conclusion.

I would understand the bizarre match prices (Marseille are [1.63], the draw [3.9] and Toulouse [7]) if TFC weren't in excellent form, but they've won their last two matches to nil against PSG (1-0) and Lens (2-0) and were deservedly victors in both games. Against Lens last weekend, 2008-09's Ligue 1 24-goal top scorer Andre-Pierre Gignac netted for the first time in eight league games, putting him in confident mood before facing his boyhood idols.

The French League authorities took the ridiculous decision to call off Marseille's home game against arch-rivals PSG last Sunday night just because three members of PSG's squad were suffering from swine flu. The Marseille players' anger might have died down by the time this game kicks-off, but going 10 days without a competitive fixture has done the home side no favours.

Correct-score punters ought to consider 2-2 ([23.0]) and a 3-2 Toulouse win ([90.0]), because those selections are overpriced on a match between two sides that excel going forward. The draw is worth considering at [3.9], but TFC have the ability to nick a counter-attacking win, so laying Marseille's my pick at [1.65].

Nice v Le Mans (4pm, Sunday)

Nice's 4-1 win over Lyon last Saturday was one of the shocks of the season so far, but they totally deserved to win by such a remarkable margin, which is why their odds-against price to beat Le Mans this weekend looks far too big.

Didier Olle-Nicolle's home side are still full of holes - their central defence is a shambles, dead-ball expert David Hellebuyck was anonymous until last weekend and Chaouki Ben Saada, their wonderfully inventive Tunisia international attacker, remains an unjustifiably peripheral figure - but last week's comprehensive victory will have lifted the mood.

Le Mans' 3-0 defeat at Bordeaux last weekend was their fifth straight away loss of the season. They've scored just once and conceded 10 times during that run of results and find themselves in the relegation zone. Coach Paulo Duarte's attacking tactics were entertaining at the start of the season, but when Le Mans need to shut up shop, there's nobody to close the door. Centre-halves Joao Paulo and Gregory Cerdan lack pace, while former Middlesbrough midfielder Herold Goulon would be more effective if he had somebody to share the workload with him in front of the defence.

I'd make Nice around [1.8] to win the game, so snap up the [2.06].