Ligue 1 Betting: The best counter-attacking side in France

French Football / James Eastham / 30 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham has made 4.42pts profit (after 5% commission) from 19pts staked on Ligue 1 this season. Check out his two high-scoring selections across the weekend's fixtures...

Which side has the best away record in Ligue 1 this season? Le Mans, who lie fifth in the table and are the subject of one of our two recommended bets in France this weekend.

Their 2-0 defeat at home to Auxerre on Wednesday night merely emphasised the disparity between results on their own patch and the road. Le Mans have won two, drawn one and lost three at their Stade Leon-Bollee. Away from home they're unbeaten in five games, winning three times and drawing twice.

Why such a discrepancy? Because they're the best counter-attacking side in France. Le Mans are far from the only Ligue 1 team to employ a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Yves Bertucci's side are more adept at using it as a springboard for success on their travels than virtually any other team in the country.

Their explosive front four - attacking midfielder Fredrik Stromstad, Norwegian compatriot centre-forward Thorstein Helstad, Ivory Coast's Olympic captain Gervinho and lanky left-winger Modibo Maiga - have developed the useful habit of reading each other's games, seamlessly swapping positions and attacking at pace while retaining precision. Their understanding explains why Le Mans have scored 13 goals in five away games (the highest tally in the league), with the aforementioned quartet grabbing nine of them.

This weekend they travel to Lyon, though (Sunday, 8pm kick-off UK time). The hosts are not only seven-times champions, but also proud owners of a formidable long-term home record: 'OL' have lost just nine of 133 league games at their Stade de Gerland since their title-winning streak started in 2001-02. Their win rate during the period in question is a whopping 71%, which equates to a price of [1.4] per victory. That puts paid to Le Mans' chances of causing a shock.

So how to make use of the visitors' excellent away form? By backing a high-scoring encounter. As we've said, Le Mans are Ligue 1's most prolific side on the road, and there's no reason why their proficiency should grind to a halt against a Lyon side that has leaked 14 goals in their last 10 games. Even though over 2.5 goals is odds-on ([1.85]) - a rarity in France - the price still looks too big. Four of Lyon's five home games and all five of Le Mans' away games have had over 2.5 goals this season, with the average number of goals per game across those 10 fixtures 3.7. But I think you should be bolder - because this is a virtually unheard-of opportunity to back over 3.5 goals. Six out of 10 fixtures involving these sides (Lyon home, Le Mans away) have contained four goals or more, so a price around the [3.3] mark looks far too big.

Another game where goals appear on the cards is Marseille v St Etienne (Saturday, 8pm kick-off UK time). The hosts have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 matches in all competitions while St Etienne have conceded six goals in their last two matches (4-1 and 2-0 defeats at home to Lorient and local rivals Grenoble respectively).

The 'overs' stats on St Etienne are weak - only two out of 10 Ligue 1 matches involving the side so far this season have had three goals or more - but their defending was so poor in those last two outings I feel sure they will concede more than one goal, while their excellent striker Bafetimbi Gomis (five goals in his last six goals) is more than capable of profiting from the chronic malaise at the heart of the Marseille defence.

A home win at [1.69] looks a strong call, with 2-1 ([9]) and 3-1 ([15]) speculative scoreline selections worth considering. But I prefer overs, so get on les Verts' green defenders to cause a goal-fest.

Recommended bets:

Lyon v Le Mans over 3.5 goals [3.3]
Marseille v St Etienne over 2.5 goals [2.05]