Ligue 1 Betting: Back resurgent St Etienne to nick a point in the south

French Football / James Eastham / 14 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Not so green: Argentina international striker Gonzalo Bergessio has made a fantastic start to life in France following his transfer from San Lorenzo to St Etienne

Recommended bet: Montpellier v St Etienne draw @ 3.3.

Alain Perrin's critics have gone into hiding. The former Pompey boss was roundly ridiculed following St Etienne's poor start to the season, but he's having the last laugh now as the new-look Verts are playing some of the best football in the division. Best bet: Montpellier v St Etienne draw @ [3.3].

We're eight matchdays into the Ligue 1 season, so it's time to have a look at our betting record in 2009-10 so far.

We've staked 19pts on Ligue 1 matches and made a profit of 0.32pts (after 5% commission), which represents 1.7% ROI. Nothing special, then - but the early weeks of the season are usually the most difficult, so we've got a platform to build on in the months ahead.

Our 'best bets' have produced a better return, as you'd expect: winners on matchdays 1, 2, 3, 6 and 8 have earned us a total profit of 3.74pts (after 5% commission) from 8pts staked, which is 46.8% ROI.

It's always hard to find attractive betting opportunities when the action resumes following an international break - so stick to the game below this weekend and keep the rest of your cash in your pocket for the remainder of the season:

Montpellier (3rd) v St Etienne (12th) (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

Everybody who was anybody in St Etienne's history queued up to criticise St Etienne coach Alain Perrin and sporting director Damien Comolli in the first six weeks of the season as the once-great club languished in the relegation zone, but Perrin's prediction that les Verts' results would improve once summer signings Agustin Hernandez (right midfielder), Boubacar Sanogo (striker) and Gonzalo Bergessio (striker) settled in has proved prescient.

Before the international break St Etienne won their last three matches in all competitions - 4-1 over Nice in the French League Cup, 2-1 at Monaco in the league and then 3-1 at home to champions Bordeaux. That last result lifted the side to 12th, their highest position of the season.

St Etienne played the best football of Perrin's erratic 11 months in charge in those three matches. The defence remains wobbly (hence the lack of clean sheets), but Christophe Landrin and Gelson Fernandes are finally sharing some of the burden with much-coveted Blaise Matuidi in midfield and ultra-talented winger Dimitri Payet's return to form with a beautifully-executed 25-yard volley against Bordeaux surely had something to do with the fact that the competition for places in the side has just got stiffer.

The attitude, industry and finishing skills of Argentina international Bergessio have drawn the greatest plaudits - he's scored four goals in 404 minutes of football - but as well as improving the side through their own efforts, he and the other major arrivals have clearly raised the standards of team-mates. St Etienne now look capable of challenging for a top-six spot this season, just as Perrin insisted all along.

Montpellier have exceeded expectations since winning promotion back to the top flight last May, picking up 17pts from their first possible 24pts to move up to third place in the table. A closer inspection of their results reveals that a favourable fixture list has aided their progress, however - their three home wins in a record of W3-D1-L0 at Stade de la Mosson came against lower-ranking opponents (14th-placed Sochaux, 16th-placed Boulogne and 17th-placed Lens), so I feel their chances of recording a fourth consecutive home win this weekend are not as big as the price of [2.24] suggests.

St Etienne are available at [3.8], but the draw is my selection at [3.3]. Correct-score punters ought to consider 1-1 ([6.8]) and 2-2 ([19.0]).