Ligue 1 Betting: Look out for low goals across the board as league action resumes

French Football / James Eastham / 19 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Midfield maestro: France international Moussa Sissoko is Toulouse's top scorer with six goals this season

Recommended bet: Nice v Toulouse draw at 3.2.

Players take their time to settle back into the rhythm of domestic football when they return from international duty, so under 2.5 goals may offer best value in the goals markets this weekend, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Nice v Toulouse draw @ [3.2].

I'm always cautious about betting on league action after an international break because you're never sure what mood, form or fitness the players will return in.

One trend I've noticed in France, though, is that of teams playing more cautiously when the league resumes. The French League has been high-scoring this season, but the two matchdays (5 and 9) immediately after rounds of World Cup qualifiers in September and October were noticeably lower-scoring.

Nine out of 10 league games on matchday 5 and seven of 10 games on matchday 9 (80% in total) had under 2.5 goals, compared to a season tally of 66 out of 119 games (55%). The goals-per-game count plummeted, too - an average of 1.75 goals per game were scored across those two matchdays compared to a season average of 2.58 goals per game.

Two matchdays may be a small sample, but the pattern is worth taking into account if you're a goals punter. Prices on under 2.5 goals range from [1.60] on Auxerre v Monaco to [1.91] on Bordeaux v Valenciennes, so you need six out of nine games to have under 2.5 goals this weekend to guarantee a profit if you back under 2.5 goals on all games to level stakes.

On to this week's recommendation:

Nice (11th) v Toulouse (9th) (Sunday, 4pm UK time)

False league positions are manna to punters and, right now, no Ligue 1 side is in a falser position than Toulouse.

Alain Casanova's team lie ninth with 18pts from 12 games, but les Toulousains are far better than that league position suggests. Indeed, right now, I'd say they're the fourth-best side in France behind the 'Big Three' of Bordeaux, Marseille and Lyon.

Toulouse have failed to pick up maximum points from games they've dominated. Fixtures against Valenciennes (0-1), Nancy (0-0), Lyon (1-2) and Lorient (0-1) ought to have gleaned eight points rather than one, and that failure to capitalise on long periods of dominance is why they're rattling around in mid-table.

But three wins and a draw from their last four games shows they're hitting their stride. The fact their only dropped points during this mini-revival came in a 2-2 draw at Marseille, when they played with 10 men for more than 80 minutes, indicates the quality and mental strength of the side.

Etienne Capoue, Moussa Sissoko, Franck Tabanou and Andre-Pierre Gignac were on duty for France's senior side or U21s in the past week, but Capoue, Gignac and Tabanou played an average of only 110 minutes each, while 20-year-old Sissoko, Ligue 1's best midfielder this season, will be fresh after watching France's two games against the Republic of Ireland from the sidelines.

I don't see Nice winning against such resolute opponents. The Riviera club have won three on the run but, after deservedly thrashing Lyon 4-1 on October 24, they were lucky to beat struggling Le Mans (1-0) and were twice saved by the post against PSG (1-0) a fortnight ago.

I wouldn't rule out Toulouse at [3.35], but the draw's my pick at [3.2].