Ligue 1 Betting: Le Havre to wave the Blanc flag when they visit Bordeaux

French Football / James Eastham / 28 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham talks us through the midweek fixtures in Ligue 1 where Laurent Blanc's Bordeaux are out to seek revenge. Here's why...

James Eastham has made 3.39pts profit (after 5% commission) on 18pts staked on Ligue 1 matches this season. Check out his matchday 11 recommendations...

They say a team that has suffered some sort of injustice wants the chance to put things right at the earliest opportunity. In that case - look out Le Havre.

They travel to face Bordeaux on Tuesday night in the advanced matchday 10 clash (the other nine fixtures take place on Wednesday) - and if there's one team in France entitled to a sense of grievance right now, it's Laurent Blanc's Girondins. Ligue 1's fourth-placed side were 2-0 up and in total control against Nice on Saturday night until referee and linesman contrived to turn the game against them. First the bloke on the touchline failed to spot that Eric Mouloungui was offside when headed home to make the score 2-1 on 84 minutes and then deep into injury-time the referee awarded an extremely harsh penalty against Bordeaux midfielder Pierre Ducasse. Loic Remy duly dispatched from the spot - leaving Bordeaux with only a point from a game that should have been theirs.

Don't get mad, get even, was Blanc's post-match message. "There's no point discussing the officials' decisions; there's nothing we can do about them now. We're better off channeling our energies into our next game," said the former France defender. Those comments explain why Le Havre ought to be fearful - although backing Bordeaux is not based simply on their sense of vengeance. Les Girondins have started playing the sort of football that earned them runners-up spot last season: they're unbeaten in six Ligue 1 matches (three wins, three draws), have three wins and a draw from their last four matches in all competitions and man-of-the-moment playmaker Yoann Gourcuff is ready to return after making only as a 25-minute substitute appearance against Nice.

You might find it odd to oppose Le Havre immediately after their second win of the season, but there are good reasons to do so. They were lucky to beat Valenciennes 2-1 on Saturday, as goalkeeper Christophe Revault admitted after the game. The balding veteran was right to call it one of their three worst performances of the season so far; only his brilliance and a typical gaffe from his error-prone opposite number Nicolas Penneteau handed Le Havre all three points. But a Le Havre defence that has conceded at least one goal in each of their last nine Ligue 1 matches (average 1.44 goals per game) will be no match for the attacking trio Gourcuff, Wendel and Fernando Cavenaghi (six goals in 10 games).

Bordeaux are a short [1.44] to win, so I recommend the hosts with a -1.25-goal start on the Asian handicap at [2.06] instead. There's an element of risk here, of course, since a one-goal winning margin will cost you money. If you're nervous about that you might like to consider over 2.5 goals at [2.02] as an alternative - because, as this column has pointed out before, Bordeaux's home wins are usually high-scoring (12 of 16 under Blanc have had over 2.5 goals).

Elsewhere on the fixtures list, top meets bottom on Wednesday when Lyon visit Sochaux - no prizes for guessing which is which. Don't rule out a Sochaux goal, though - they are the only side in Ligue 1 to have scored in every game and Lyon's 0-0 draw against Auxerre on Saturday was the champions' first clean sheet in six matches. If Sochaux score but Lyon win - and I expect them to - it will be an 'overs' game, so consider over 2.5 at [2.14] rather than Lyon at [1.83]. More speculative selections are 1-2 and 1-3 correct scorelines at [9.6] and [18.5] respectively.

But my best bet of the week - the one I'm happy to hang my hat on - is Bordeaux with a deficit start. Get on Blanc's boys to give Le Havre a hiding.

Recommended bets:

Bordeaux -1.25 v Le Havre [2.06]