French Football / James Eastham / 24 September 2009 / Leave a comment

After making a 3.9pts profit (after 5% commission) from six Ligue 1 'best bets' so far and turning an overall profit from all his French tips across the opening six matchdays of 2009-10, what are James Eastham's expert selections for this weekend? Best bet: Lay Lyon at home to Toulouse @ [1.47].

Recommended bets: Back Auxerre -0.75 Asian handicap to beat Grenoble @ 1.89; lay Lyon at home to Toulouse @ 1.47.

Ligue 1's three Champions League representatives - Bordeaux, Marseille and Lyon - all turned in less than convincing performances a fortnight ago before the opening round of Champions League fixtures. Progressing to the knock-out stages of Europe's premier club competition is a primary aim for all three clubs - so don't expect the 'Big Three' to be wholly focused on league matters this weekend (especially Lyon, as you'll see below).

Auxerre v Grenoble (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

Grenoble made it six defeats from six against Rennes last weekend (0-4) and followed up by losing 1-0 at Lorient in the Coupe de la Ligue on Tuesday night. Their defensive record isn't great - 12 goals conceded, which is two goals a game - but of far greater concern to coach Mecha Bazdarevic will be the fact that Grenoble have managed just two goals in total and three shots on target per game. Croatia international Daniel Ljuboja has scored both goals - so shut him out, and you effectively silence Grenoble.

Auxerre have picked up four points from the last six on offer thanks to the return of Poland international strike Ireneusz Jelen and the refusal of coach Jean Fernandez to panic when results went awry earlier in the season. Jelen and team-mates may have lost 3-1 away to Ligue 2 side Sedan in the Coupe de la Ligue on Wednesday night, but the league is what really matters to Auxerre, and the front men will be confident of scoring against a Grenoble defence that will be without their only two reliable centre-halves, Slovenia international Bostjan Cesar and former France U21 international Sandy Paillot.

1-0 [6.0] and 2-0 [8.0] are the most likely scorelines, so split your stakes across those two outcomes or back Auxerre -0.75 [[1.89]) on the Asian handicap.

Lyon v Toulouse (Saturday, 8pm)

Six games into the season, third-placed Lyon are [2.46] title favourites - but they'll need to play a lot better than they have in their last couple of games if their record 70m euro summer investment in new players is to secure the Ligue 1 trophy next May.

Only a number of outstanding saves from goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and an 85th-minute goal that Bafetimbi Gomis scored from an offside position earned Lyon a 1-1 away to PSG last Sunday. Eight days earlier, Lyon were lucky to win 1-0 at home to a Lorient side that controlled the game for the final 20 minutes.

Toulouse deserved more than one point from games against Valenciennes (0-1) and Nancy (0-0) on matchdays 4 and 5 respectively but finally got their rewards on matchday 6 last weekend by beating Le Mans 2-0. Captain and centre-half Mauro Cetto is out for the next three months, but Alain Casanova's outstanding young players (left-back Cheikh Mbengue, midfielders Moussa Sissoko, Etienne Capoue and Paulo Machado and last season's 24-goal Ligue 1 top scorer Andre-Pierre Gignac) are turning in assured performances every week now.

Lyon have the attacking potential to win virtually any game they play, but the defence still gives cause for concern. Lloris, as mentioned, has been turning in stellar performances, and without him you have to wonder whether Lyon would be considered title contenders at all: centre-halves Cris and Mathieu Bodmer have never looked comfortable playing alongside each other, and Jean-Alain Boumsong, the alternative, is capable of being commanding one week, lax the next.

Lyon are too short at [1.47] against one of Ligue 1's most athletically impressive, physically imposing and mentally robust sides - so I'd lay them or back the draw at [4.8].