Ligue 1 Betting: Goals the smart bet for Le Mans' trip to the Parc

French Football / James Eastham / 12 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Star striker: New PSG signing Mevlut Erding has scored 11 goals in each of the past two seasons for a struggling Sochaux side

Recommended bets: PSG v Le Mans over 2.5 goals @ 2.3; Boulogne v Grenoble 0-0 (8.0) and 1-1 (6.4) correct scorelines (split your stakes).

PSG's home matches were among the highest-scoring in Europe last season, so expect goals in the French capital on Saturday night - particularly since there will be an enterprising young Portuguese manager sitting on the opposition bench, writes James Eastham. Best bet: PSG v Le Mans over 2.5 goals @ [2.3].

PSG v Le Mans (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

The French League, boring? That's what they say - but a quick glance at PSG's home stats from last season dispels that particular myth.

The capital club's Parc des Princes fixtures spawned an average of 3.18 goals across 11 matches from early December to late May, a high tally in a league where 2.25 was the norm. Left-winger Jerome Rothen may be on his way out, but Turkey international striker Mevlut Erding has arrived, so I expect the goal count to remain just as high this term.

The figure that will most concern incoming manager Antoine Kombouare, however, is PSG's record of just two clean sheets in the 11 matches in question. The new man in charge has partially addressed PSG's defensive shortcomings by signing former France international goalkeeper Gregory Coupet - he should be more reliable than error-prone Mickael Landreau - but the back four is likely to remain the side's Achilles heel because PSG don't have a single centre-half of international standing. In the short-term, things will be even worse - Zoumana Camara, the best of a bad bunch at the heart of their defence, is out for two months with a calf injury

Le Mans appear equally well-equipped to contribute to a high-scoring encounter. Last weekend's 2-2 draw at home to Lyon was one of Ligue 1's most entertaining games, and new Portuguese boss Paulo Duarte's decision to send on centre-forward Thomas Helstad for holding midfielder Herold Goulon at a point where Le Mans led 2-1 summed up his cavalier approach. Le Mans conceded a last-minute equaliser, so you might say his decision backfired - but, for neutrals and exchange players, the potential for excitement and goals in Le Mans' matches in the weeks ahead is obvious.

A repeat of last season's 3-1 PSG win would be no surprise, Consider 2-1 [9.4], 3-1 [18.5] or 2-2 [25] scorelines - or back over 2.5 goals at a generous [2.3].

Boulogne v Grenoble (Sunday, 4pm)

The only comfort Boulogne can draw from last weekend's 3-0 defeat at Rennes is that their victors went easy on them.

Boulogne's debut season in the top flight was always going to be difficult, but the ease with which Rennes brushed them aside underlined the folly of rookie coach Laurent Guyot's transfer policy of signing youngsters who failed to pin down regular first-team places at Ligue 1 clubs last season (Kevin Dembele, Fabien Robert, Mathieu Valverde and Guillaume Borne) while adding veteran Nantes midfielder, Frederic Da Rocha, as a token older head.

At least this weekend Boulogne host opponents as likely to face relegation this season. Grenoble may have finished 13th last term but they managed just 25 goals in 38 games - Ligue 1's lowest tally - and the arrival of Daniel Ljuboja, now 31, is unlikely to improve their scoring rate too dramatically. The former PSG striker showed against Marseille (2-0 defeat) last Saturday that he is more of a creator than taker of chances, and Grenoble have no-one to convert the Croatia international's assists.

Defeats for both sides last weekend will make this a cautious game, because the French mentality is to avoid a second defeat rather than try to achieve victory. The draw is my selection at [3.1] - and, since a high-scoring stalemate is inconceivable, the smart move is to split your stakes across 0-0 [8] and 1-1 [6.4] scorelines. That way, you'll earn a higher return if the game ends goalless than you would by simply backing the draw.

* James Eastham has made 19.86pts profit (after 5% commission) from 85pts staked (23.4% ROI) on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets on betting.betfair.com.