Ligue 1 Betting: France on the attack?

French Football / Ben Lyttleton / 21 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Is the goals market, usually one to avoid in France, now one to look at?"

French football isn't famous for producing goals but this weekend saw a scoring flurry. Ben Lyttleton wonders if we can expect more...

Last week was Round Five in the French league, and the 14 goals scored across ten games suggested that the excitement of the three way title race between Marseille [3.45], Lyon [2.4] and Bordeaux [3.4] might not convert to thrilling enconters on the pitch. After all, France has a long-standing reputation as the lowest scorers in Europe's top five leagues and backing the Under 2.5 Goals market has been a regular tip from this site's French expert James Eastham.

So what happened in Round Six this weekend, when 35 goals were scored across the 10 games? Was it a freak occurrence or is it a sign of a new attacking order in the league? Is the goals market, usually one to avoid in France, now one to look at? Or is it just too early in the season to judge?

I think not, but first, it's worth knowing just why France has traditionally been so low-scoring.

One theory is simply that there have been too many cautious coaches in the division, all of whom see not conceding as more important than scoring: last season, Elie Baup (Nantes) and Paul le Guen (PSG) were accused of this, though neither are at those clubs now.

Uefa president Michel Platini has bemoaned "training academies that are more interested in runners and strong-men rather than technically-gifted players", while Lyon winger Sidney Govou said: "I think there are fewer goals because French teams have reached a very high level in term of tactics, and teams are extremely well-organised defensively."

There is also the important fact that France won the 1998 World Cup playing their last three games with a five-man midfield behind (non-scoring) lone forward Stephane Guivarch. Many of Ligue 1's bosses were learning their trade at around that time and some experts have blamed an Aimé Jacquet culture for giving French football such a defensive outlook.

Don't under-estimate the importance of following someone else's winning
strategy: while French clubs could not hope to imitate Lyon's perennial model of success (which included signing the best Ligue 1 players from their rivals before selling them on for huge money to Europe's bigger clubs) the success of Bordeaux last season has clearly given hope to other French teams.

Bordeaux coach Laurent Blanc proved that you could play attractive and attacking football and still get results: their games last season produced
98 goals at an average of 2.57 per game, well above the 2.25 average for the league. And that surely has encouraged other teams to attack much more than last season.

There are a few other reasons for the goal glut last weekend, not least the disappointing performances of goalkeeper Teddy Richert, whose Sochaux side were 2-1 up at home to Valenciennes before he conceded four goals in a second-half blitz. For so long, goalkeepers have been a major strength in the French game but at the moment, there seems to be a clear lack of depth in their quality.

Ligue 1's summer recruitment has also improved the goals make-up of the
division: Lyon may have lost Karim Benzema but in Lisandro Lopez, Bafe Gomis and Michel Bastos, have signed three players who have all showed their potential ­ with a combined 14 goals in their first nine matches (compare to Benzema's seven at the same stage last season); Marseille have brought in Fernando Morientes, which seems to have brought out the best in Brandao and Mamadou Niang, while the presence of Eidur Gudjohnsen at Monaco has done the same for Nene, whose four goals in six games equals his 34-game tally last season at Espanyol.

Whereas the league goal averages per game in Germany (2.79 this season, from
2.92 last season) and Italy (2.57 from 2.60) have gone down, in France, just like England and Spain, they have gone up.

So while home games involving Bordeaux, Lyon and Marseille should all be considered in the Over-2.5 Goals Market, also keep an eye on improving Monaco, exciting Rennes, inconsistent Montpellier and the leaky defences at Nice and Grenoble. ­

There should be value in all of them as this new-look, high-octane French season progresses.