Ligue 1 Betting: Four-pronged betting attack on this weekend's fixtures before the Xmas break

French Football / James Eastham / 18 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

There are four cracking bets available in Ligue 1 this weekend as the teams play their final fixtures before putting their feet up for Christmas, writes James Eastham.

Marseille for the title? Last week's 0-0 draw at Lyon means they stay just three points off the pace in runners-up spot, and I expect them to finish 2008 on a high with a home win over Nancy (13th) on Sunday afternoon.

L'OM's home form is far from perfect going into this match - a run of just one win in their last four fixtures in all competitions underlines their inconsistency - but undeniable signs of fatigue in the visiting ranks persuade me to side with the hosts.

Nancy boss Pablo Correa, knowing that his side's chances of victory here were slim, insisted that his players beat Grenoble last weekend in order to reach the points tally he'd set of 22 by Christmas.

Nancy duly won 2-0 - but little was left in the tank for the trip to Deportivo La Coruna in the Uefa Cup on Wednesday night. Correa put out his strongest line-up, they lost 1-0 and are out of the competition - so Nancy are anything but mentally and psychologically up for the challenge of facing a Marseille side full of belief after containing the champions last week. Eight of Marseille's nine home league games this season have had over 2.5 goals - but I favour the hosts on the handicap, because I expect them to win comfortably.

Booted upstairs

Lille v Le Havre (Saturday, 6pm) is my other home banker of the weekend, since it pits consistently impressive hosts against chronically poor visitors. Le Havre's 3-1 defeat at home to Lorient last Sunday left them bottom of the table and four points from safety, prompting president Jean-Pierre Louvel to belatedly remove Jean-Marc Nobilo from the manager's post.

Rather than getting booted out, however, Nobilo was booted upstairs - he's now sporting director, with former Le Mans and Sochaux coach Frederic Hantz appointed to work underneath him. It's more than a merely cosmetic change - Hantz is an excellent coach - but the new man has arrived too late to salvage a side that lacks a single decent defender, has no natural goalscorer and is habitually saved from humiliation by long-suffering goalkeeper Christophe Revault.

I've said it before but I'll say it again - Lille (7th) are one of the best sides in France. They are my tip to finish fourth this season because of the cool-headed management of Rudi Garcia, an increasing sense of belief among their players and the brilliant balance of their midfield.

The boys from the Nord have lost just one of their last 15, are unbeaten in eight at home and go into the game in high spirits after becoming the first team to beat Nice on their own patch when they won 1-0 last weekend (their superiority was more emphatic than the scoreline suggests). This game is a rout waiting to happen - which is why I'm backing Lille with a -1.25-goal start at [2.19] rather than simply to win at [1.55].

Le Mans' wretched luck

The first of my two away selections is Le Mans at Grenoble (Saturday, 6pm) - because no side is unluckier than Le Mans (10th) at the moment. A fortnight ago, playing at the Parc des Princes, an early goal that would have put them 1-0 up against PSG was wrongly ruled out for offside.

Despite matching their hosts for much of the game, Le Mans went down 3-1 wondering what a difference that first goal would have made. Incompetence hit them again last weekend when an assistant wrongly flagged striker Gervinho offside instead of awarding Le Mans a penalty. Bordeaux were lucky to have kept 11 men on the field, and the writing was on the wall when a Mathieu Chalme fluke goal put Bordeaux 2-1 up against the run of play with 15 minutes to go. Bordeaux won 3-1.

So Le Mans' results have been poor - but if you look purely at the standard of recent performances, it's clear they should have too much quality for a Grenoble side whose run of six games without a goal and eight without a win owes nothing to bad luck and everything to a lack of confidence borne of the fact they've been "found out" after an unexpectedly cocksure start to life in Ligue 1 after promotion. I'm slightly concerned by Le Mans' sequence of four straight away defeats going into the match, but they ought to earn a point at the very least. I'm backing them on the handicap.

Title contenders

And finally, Bordeaux (3rd) are a decent price to win at Monaco (13th) in the live TV showdown at Stade Louis II on Sunday night. The visitors have somehow managed to stay in touch in the title race without actually playing well - they have hauled themselves on to 32pts, just three behind leaders Lyon thanks to the occasional brilliance of Yoann Gourcuff and penalty-box instincts of Ligue 1's joint-leading scorer Fernando Cavenaghi. One thing Bordeaux have, however, is experience and self-belief. They will be determined to close out 2008 in emphatic fashion in order to prepare for a title assault after the festive period.

Monaco have played well in fits and starts but run out of steam before the winter break has arrived. They were abject in losing 3-1 at Valenciennes last weekend, leading me to believe this will be one match too many. Bordeaux won this fixture 6-0 last February and Bordeaux have more than enough quality to take three points home to Gironde for the second successive season.

* James Eastham had made 8.19pts profit (after 5% commission) from 48.5pts staked (16.9% ROI) on French clubs in all competitions this season.

Recommended bets:

Marseille -1 at home to Nancy [2.04]
Lille -1.25 at home to Le Havre [2.19]
Le Mans +0 at Grenoble [2.08]
Bordeaux to win at Monaco [2.54]