Ligue 1 Betting: Back marvellous Marveaux to slow Bordeaux's title chase

French Football / James Eastham / 03 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Former France U21 international Sylvain Marveaux (in red) has scored six goals in 20 appearances for Rennes this season

Recommended bets: Back PSG to beat Lorient @ 1.89; back Boulogne +0.25 Asian handicap start to beat Montpellier @ 2.04; back Rennes +0.25 Asian handicap start to beat Bordeaux @ 1.85.

Bordeaux are six points clear at the top of Ligue 1, but they face a tough game this weekend so you stand a good chance of making money by opposing them, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Back PSG to beat Lorient @ [1.89].

At this time of season, motivation becomes a major consideration for serious punters. Some teams are chasing titles, European places or fighting to avoid relegation, whereas others have nothing to play for.

As we head towards spring, the first motivational trend I've noticed in France involves Grenoble. Rooted to the foot of the table since August and 14pts adrift of safety, coach Mecha Bazdarevic's public pronouncements have become increasingly resigned over the past few weeks, and results have followed accordingly.

On December 23, Grenoble lost 4-0 at PSG. A fortnight ago, they led 1-0 v Bordeaux but eventually lost 3-1. Last weekend, Rennes beat them 4-0.

Grenoble fall apart the minute they fall behind. Which is why I expect them to lose plenty of games by two goals or more between now and the end of the season.

The best way to cash in on this trend is to back their opponents with a -1-goal start on the Asian handicap. That way, you'll get your stakes back if Grenoble lose by a single goal - but make a profit at big odds if Grenoble's opponents win by two goals or more. Given how readily Grenoble fold, this could be a profitable system.

On to this weekend's main betting selections:

PSG (14th) to beat Lorient (9th) (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

PSG dominated against Lyon last weekend but Mamadou Sakho's red card in the 60th minute (if Arsenal do sign the highly-regarded centre-half, Arsene Wenger will have to calm him down) enabled Lyon to come from behind to win 2-1.

Once the dust settled, however, PSG coach Antoine Kombouare would have reflected on an excellent performance, with Mevlut Erding and Guillaume Hoarau's movement and understanding up front a highlight. As long as PSG keep 11 men on the field this weekend, they should have the quality and finishing skills to beat a Lorient side that has gone off the boil since the turn of the year.

Boulogne (19th) +0.25 Asian handicap v Montpellier (2nd) (Saturday, 6pm)

Boulogne's 0-0 draw away to champions Bordeaux last weekend was the result of a steady improvement over the past month. We made money backing Boulogne on the handicap (0-0 at Auxerre) recently after noticing how much their defending had improved. Boulogne have kept three clean sheets in their last four matches after managing just two in their previous 18.

Montpellier are deservedly second in the table but I can see them settling for a draw a week after their monumental 2-0 home victory over southern rivals Marseille. By backing the hosts with a +0.25-goal start on the Asian handicap, you'll make a profit as long as Boulogne avoid defeat.

Rennes +0.25 Asian handicap v Bordeaux (Saturday, 8pm)

Casual punters will throw their money at Bordeaux, but Rennes are one of the few sides that has the potential to beat Ligue 1's defending champions and leaders. The Bretons' starting XI includes Sylvain Marveaux, a superb 23-year-old left-sided midfielder who has been among the best players in France this season, and Ghana striker Asamoah Gyan, who has eight league goals so far.

Rennes are unbeaten in 90 minutes in 2010 in all competitions (three wins, three draws) and thrashed Grenoble 4-0 last weekend. This is one of Bordeaux's toughest remaining games, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop points. Back Rennes with a quarter-goal start on the handicap and you'll make a profit as long as they avoid defeat.

2009-10 BETTING RECORD: James Eastham has made 2.95pts profit (after 5% commission) from 41pts staked (7.2% ROI) on Ligue 1 games this season and 4.26pts profit from 18pts staked on 'best bets' (23.7% ROI)