Ligue 1 Betting: Back Les Verts to bring Lyon back down to earth

French Football / James Eastham / 11 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Miralem Pjanic (centre) and Lyon team-mates celebrate his equaliser at the Santiago Bernabeu on Wednesday night

Recommended bets: Back St Etienne +1.25 Asian handicap at Lyon @ 1.95; Le Mans v Nice over 2.5 goals @ 2.40; Monaco v Bordeaux over 2.5 goals @ 2.38.

Just because Claude Puel's Lyon knocked Real Madrid out of the Champions League in midweek doesn't mean they'll have things all their own way in the derby against St Etienne on Saturday night, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Monaco v Bordeaux over 2.5 goals @ [2.38].

St Etienne +1.25 at Lyon (Saturday, 8pm UK time)

Lyon produced one of the biggest upsets of the European season by knocking Real Madrid out of the Champions League on Wednesday night but the players have only a few days to recover before facing St Etienne in one of the most hotly-contested derbies in France.

Lyon are unbeaten against their local rivals in 16 years but St Etienne are one of the few sides in Ligue 1 playing well enough to challenge Claude Puel's hosts. Les Verts have improved markedly since Christophe Galtier became manager three months ago, with several players - notably centre-half Pape Diakhate, winger Dimitri Payet and France U21 striker Emmanuel Riviere - producing a string of excellent performances.

St Etienne have prepared all week and will catch Lyon cold if the visitors are still dreaming about that the Bernabeu, arguably the greatest night in the club's history. Back the visitors with a +1.25-goal start on the Asian handicap at [1.95].

Le Mans v Nice over 2.5 goals (Saturday, 6pm)

Nice manager Didier Olle-Nicolle was sacked on Monday morning. I had some sympathy for him, as a lack of ambition has thwarted the club's progress for years, but he made mistakes, notably leaving Tunisia international Chaouki Ben Saada (owner of one of French football's finest left feet) on the bench most of the season.

Sporting director Eric Roy (former Sunderland and Marseille player), takes over until May and has a job on his hands: Nice, lying 17th, have won just one of their last 14 matches.

Le Mans are one place and 5pts below Nice with a game in hand so this is a vital match for both sides. I expect a nervous, tense encounter, but that won't necessarily lead to few goals.

Le Mans have kept just three clean sheets in 26 matches; Nice just five in 27. Just under half (49%) of all matches involving these two sides have had over 2.5 goals this season, so I'm willing to back overs at [2.4].

Monaco v Bordeaux over 2.5 goals (Saturday, 6pm)

Bordeaux's unexpected 2-1 home defeat to Auxerre on Wednesday night threw the title race wide open and confirmed that the mood in les Girondins camp is tense.

Coach Laurent Blanc has been unusually tetchy in recent days. He's snapped at journalists who have pestered him for weeks about whether he's interested in the France job, and is rightly annoyed that the French League authorities insisted that the Auxerre game took place this week rather than after Bordeaux's Champions League last 16 second leg against Olympiacos next week.

Bordeaux welcome back France centre-half Michael Ciani from suspension but will be without the injured Marc Planus, who's just as important at the back. Planus is the defensive organiser so I expect an uncertain performance from a team that has conceded in 11 of their last 12 games against Ligue 1 opponents.

Monaco's have leaked 12 goals in their last eight matches and relied several times on goalkeeper Stephane Ruffier to hold opponents at bay. But the former France U21 international's performances have dipped towards mortal levels in the past month, making Monaco more vulnerable.

I expect an open encounter and recommend that you back over 2.5 goals at [2.38].

* James Eastham has made 2.68pts profit (after 5% commission) from 40pts staked on 'best bets' in Ligue 1 games