Ligue 1 Betting: Back Boulogne and low goals to earn a weekend profit

French Football / James Eastham / 17 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Missing man: Record scorer Gregory Thil (right) has been a major loss for Boulogne this season

Recommended bets: Boulogne +0 Asian handicap to beat Sochaux @ 2.18; Auxerre v Toulouse and Grenoble v Sochaux under 2.5 goals double @ 2.56.

A crucial relegation clash at Boulogne's Stade de la Liberation and a couple of potentially low-scoring encounters offer your best ways of making money on the French League this weekend, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Boulogne +0 Asian handicap v Sochaux @ [2.18].

Boulogne (19th) v Sochaux (15th) (Saturday, 6pm)

There's little in Boulogne's recent form to suggest they're likely to win this weekend, but the visit of Sochaux presents Laurent Guyot's struggling hosts with a unique opportunity to boost their points total.

Boulogne, lying 19th, have only 12pts from 17 games. The turning point of their season came on September 12, when Gregory Thil - the club's all-time top scorer - limped off with a foot injury.

With Thil in the team, newly-promoted Boulogne had collected seven points from their opening four games of 2009-10. Without him - as they have been ever since, and will be until February - they've picked up just five points from their last 13 matches.

Boulogne have struggled without Thil, yet visitors Sochaux are one of the few sides playing more poorly than Boulogne at the moment. Les Doubistes may be higher in the league table - 15th, with 22pts - but they're limping towards the January transfer window under a cloud.

Sochaux lost a talismanic striker of their own when USA striker Charlie Davies was ruled out for the rest of the season after suffering serious injuries in a car crash in October. Since that incident, manager Francis Gillot has spoken so frequently of his need to sign a replacement for Davies that Sochaux's other players have lost belief. They are operating on auto-pilot, and will continue to do so until the club signs a new striker next month.

A fortnight ago, Boulogne came from behind to beat Lens 2-1 despite playing with 10 men for more than 70 minutes. If they adopt a similarly combative attitude here, they should avoid defeat. Back Boulogne at odds-against with a 0-goal start on the Asian handicap.

Auxerre v Toulouse (Sunday, 4pm) and Grenoble v Nice (Saturday, 6pm) under 2.5 goals double

The French League has been higher-scoring than normal this season, but there are still some good opportunities to back low-scoring matches.

Thirteen of Auxerre's 17 league games and 14 of Toulouse's 17 league games have had under 2.5 goals this season. That's 27 of 34 games involving the two sides, or 79%. In decimal odds, 79% is [1.27], so the [1.60] on offer is good value.

Auxerre are bedding down in the top-half of the table after a brief, heady spell in top spot last month. Their 0-0 draw at Valenciennes last Tuesday typified the pragmatic approach they're taking at the moment, and I suspect they'd settle for another 0-0 here. Toulouse, demoralised after elimination from the Europa League at the hands of Club Bruges on Thursday night, would welcome a draw.

The stats on the other half of the double are less compelling: 11 of Grenoble's 17 games and 10 of Nice's 17 games have had under 2.5 goals, which equals 62%, or [1.62]. That means the [1.60] available on unders looks about right.

But the predicament of the two sides tends towards a tense, tight encounter. Bottom club Grenoble enjoyed a brief revival a short time ago (W1-D3-L0) but have suffered 1-0 defeats to Sochaux and Le Mans in their last two outings. Mecha Bazdarevic's side cannot afford a third consecutive defeat against direct relegation rivals.

Nice will be cautious after 2-0 defeats in their last two games. Didier Olle-Nicolle's side were outplayed against both Lens and Nancy in the past seven days, so avoiding defeat will be their priority as they prepare for a third consecutive away game.

I expect defending in numbers from both sides, which should lead to low-scoring encounters. The double pays out at a healthy [2.56].