Ligue 1 Betting: Auxerre the value pick to make it seven wins in a row

French Football / James Eastham / 28 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham wraps up a successful season of Ligue 1 betting with two selections across the final weekend of games as Yoann Gourcuff's Bordeaux and Marseille battle for the title. Best bet: Back Auxerre to win at Nantes at [2.65].

We've come to the last Ligue 1 weekend of the season - so it's time to assess how we've done over the course of 2008-09.

Going into the final round of matches, we're running a profit of 18.05pts (after 5% commission) from 80pts staked on Ligue 1 games. That's a stunning ROI of 20.1% - and our profit could grow further as we've got two more bets for you this week (below).

Don't forget, we also have an open bet on Bordeaux to win Ligue 1 after we backed les Girondins to claim their first title triumph in a decade at [4.9] back on January 15. Bordeaux, now [1.12], need only a point away to Caen on Saturday night to be sure of being crowned champions (a defeat might be enough), so we're confident of adding to our profit.

OK, that's enough self-congratulatory back-slapping - here are our final Ligue 1 picks of the season:

Nantes (18th) v Auxerre (8th) (Saturday, 8pm UK time)

Nantes' 2-1 defeat away to Sochaux last weekend ended their hopes of avoiding relegation, so the inquests have already begun into exactly what went wrong for one of France's most famous clubs. The blaming and backbiting is well underway, meaning the unhealthy atmosphere that's bubbled under the surface all season could boil over on a night when the players and deeply unpopular club president Waldemar Kita will be the targets of boos from the stands.

The contrast with Auxerre couldn't be starker. The visitors arrive on a run of six straight wins that has lifted them from the fringes of the relegation battle to a comfortable eighth position. Jean Fernandez's side may, in theory, have nothing to play for, but they're a proud team who want to finish the season well and several of the performers in Fernandez's line-up - right-back Cedric Hengbart, rejuvenated midfielder Benoit Pedretti and influential Denmark playmaker Thomas Kahlenberg - intend securing improved contracts, either at Auxerre or elsewhere.

Exchange layers offering Auxerre at such long odds must be unaware that Nantes have won just one of their last 10 home matches. I'm surprised to find Auxerre available at really appealing prices - so back the visitors to finish on a high.

St Etienne (18th) v Valenciennes (11th) (Saturday, 8pm)

Alain Perrin showed an alarming lack of panic following his side's 1-0 defeat at Auxerre last week that left St Etienne in the relegation zone. The former Portsmouth boss claimed he knew all along that victory over Valenciennes this weekend would be essential for his club to survive in the top flight, implying that the setback at Auxerre didn't really matter.

But the problem for Perrin is, a win this weekend may not be enough. Les Verts will still finish in the bottom three even if they win, if relegation rivals Caen cause a major upset by beating champions-elect Bordeaux and Le Mans and Sochaux, the other two sides that can go down, pick up a point apiece. Should those outcomes occur, Perrin's coolness will look misplaced.

The reasons he's so confident are St Etienne's decent home form - eight wins from 18 games this season - and that mid-table Valenciennes apparently have nothing to play for. Yet the visitors enjoy causing upsets - witness wins over PSG (2-1) and Lyon (2-0) in the past six weeks - and also want to give outgoing coach Antoine Kombouare the best possible send-off. It's also worth noting that popular boss Kombouare has asked his players to go out and win on the road for the first time this season.

I feel Valenciennes may struggle to secure that elusive away victory, but they're good enough to avoid defeat. The price on the hosts is too short, so lay them.

Ligue 1 XI 2008-09: Lloris (Lyon) - Fanni (Rennes), Mangane (Rennes), Diawara (Bordeaux), Tremoulinas (Bordeaux) - Diarra (Bordeaux), Clement (PSG) - Sessegnon (PSG), Gourcuff (Bordeaux), Bastos (Lille) - Gignac (Toulouse)

Recommended bets:
Auxerre to win at Nantes @ 2.65; Lay St Etienne at home to Valenciennes @ 1.42.