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Ligue 1 Betting: A very rare opportunity to oppose Lyon

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James Eastham tells us why upcoming Champions League commitments and a seven point lead at the top of the table may result in Lyon giving less than 100% at the Parc Des Princes against a fired-up PSG. Plus the best of the rest of this weekend's bets.

Even by Marseille's standards, last weekend's events were remarkable. Leading 2-0 at home to Lorient, l'OM somehow managed to concede three goals in the final 15 minutes to lose 3-2 to mediocre visitors who ought to finish the season several places below them.

I don't expect Marseille's players to pick themselves up in time for the visit of Lille this Sunday (8pm kick-off). The Velodrome is a wonderful venue for the south-coast hosts when things are going their way, but passion quickly turns to fury among the 60,000-strong crowd when their heroes let them down. Only an early goal would relieve the tension - and Marseille, frozen by fear, are unlikely to get it.

Lille are one of the best sides in France. They have lost just one of their last 10 league games - and were unlucky to do so, 1-0 at PSG, a fortnight ago. Their charismatic coach, Rudi Garcia, is one of the few bosses in France who insist that his side plays to win home and away. Lille's five-man midfield - lauded before in this column - possesses a technical standard that few French sides can match. The brilliantly incisive Ludovic Obraniak, six-goal leading scorer, is just one of several reasons I expect Lille to claim at least a point.

Even the best teams need a breather - and I sense Lyon will take one at PSG on Saturday night (8pm). The seven-times champions beat Bordeaux 2-1 last weekend, which has freed them up to focus on more immediately important challenges, such as Tuesday night's trip to Fiorentina in the Champions League.

It's not that Lyon will write off entirely their encounter in the Parc des Princes - but coach Claude Puel may well ask his players to avoid taking unnecessary risks against hyper-motivated opponents, since a draw would satisfy the league leaders after building up a seven-point cushion at the top. It's rare to oppose Lyon - but I recommend laying the visitors at [2.3] or backing PSG with a +0.25 start on the Asian handicap at [1.8].

Monaco manager Ricardo is one of the most defensive-minded coaches in Ligue 1, but he's recently let his team off the leash, resulting in goals at both ends of the pitch in their matches. Three of the Principality outfit's last four fixtures have had over 2.5 goals, with an average of 3.25 goals per game across that quartet of games.

The emergence of attacking midfielders Alexandre Licata and Yohan Mollo has improved Monaco's scoring rate, but 18-year-old centre-half Nicolas Nkoulou is showing signs of flakiness in a side still lacking the obdurate defensive midfield skills of long-term injury victim Lucas Bernardi. Visitors Le Mans are ideally placed to exploit the gaps, since they're joint-highest scorers in the division on the road, netting 14 times in seven games, or 14 times in six if you discount their trip to the peerless Lyon. Those six games have averaged 3.83 goals - so the stats on both sides point to an over 2.5 goals encounter (Sunday, 4pm).

Another high-scoring game ought to occur at Stade Chaban-Delmas, where Bordeaux host Rennes on Saturday night (6pm). Les Girondins' title chances may have ended with that defeat at Lyon last weekend, but Laurent Blanc's team will continue playing the attacking football that makes them entertainingly high scorers while granting opponents chances.

Rennes, unbeaten in 12 league games, will be confident of adding to their tally of five goals in their last two outings because of Bordeaux's openness at the back and the form of the likes of Jimmy Briand and Moussa Sow up front. The longer-term stats on the hosts are persuasive, too: 17 of Bordeaux's 26 (65%) home matches under Blanc have had over 2.5 goals.

Recommended bets:

Lay Marseille at home to Lille [1.81]
Lay Lyon at PSG [2.3]
Monaco v Le Mans over 2.5 goals [2.36]
Bordeaux v Rennes over 2.5 goals [2.4]