Ligue 1 Betting: Back sides fighting the drop to spring upsets

French Football / James Eastham / 13 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Missing in action: Grenoble are weaker in defence because Alaixys Romao is on African Cup of Nations duty for Togo

Recommended bets: Back St Etienne +0 Asian handicap at Grenoble @ 2.17; Boulogne +1 Asian handicap at Auxerre @ 2.10.

Some clubs can still put out strong line-ups despite the exodus of Ligue 1 players to the African Nations Cup in Angola, writes James Eastham - and two of them, St Etienne and Boulogne, deserve your money this weekend. Best bet: St Etienne +0 Asian handicap at Grenoble @ [2.17].

An important note about betting on Ligue 1 at the moment: the African Cup of Nations has affected no European league more than Ligue 1 (38 players are on duty in Angola) and no side more than 16th-placed Nice, who've lost eight players to the tournament.

The Riviera-based outfit will have to live without Onyekachi Apam, their best centre-half, and Mamadou Bagayoko, the only player resembling a centre-forward in their struggling squad for as long as Nigeria and Mali respectively remain in the tournament. Don't back Nice until the tournament is over.

On to this week's bets:

St Etienne +0 Asian handicap at Grenoble @ [2.17] (Saturday, 8pm UK time)

Lurching from crisis to crisis, St Etienne have resembled Newcastle United over the past decade. And, like the Magpies, les Verts face relegation from the top division.

Eighteenth is a worrying place to be after half the season, which is why co-presidents Roland Romeyer and Bernard Caiazzo fired coach Alain Perrin shortly before Christmas. Ignoring calls for a big-name replacement, the pair put their faith in Perrin's assistant, Christophe Galtier, who takes on his first senior coaching role.

Early results have been patchy - 0-0 v Marseille, 0-1 at Lens - but the mood within the squad has improved since his appointment. "It's nice to be working in a united, friendly environment again," says centre-half Sylvain Monsoreau.

St Etienne have signed Senegal centre-half Pape Diakhate on a six-month loan from Dynamo Kiev, which should solve the side's defensive deficiencies. Romeyer has announced there will be no further signings, but both he and Galtier know there is ample talent in the St Etienne squad to haul the club out of trouble.

Wooden-spoon holders Grenoble briefly rallied in November and December but a 4-0 defeat at PSG on the final matchday of 2009 left them nine points adrift of safety. They have no option but to take the game to St Etienne, and that will leave their defence - already weakened by the absence of Togo international Alaixys Romao - undermanned.

Back St Etienne +0 on the Asian handicap at [2.17]. You'll get your stakes back if the game finishes all-square and make a profit if St Etienne win.

Boulogne (19th) +1 Asian handicap at Auxerre (5th) @ 2.1 (Saturday, 8pm)

This is the third game in eight days for Boulogne (they beat amateurs Seclin 4-1 in the Coupe de France last weekend and drew 0-0 v Sochaux in a rearranged league fixture on Wednesday night) so fatigue will be a concern in the away camp. But I favour Laurent Guyot's visitors because Auxerre are an essentially counter-attacking side who struggle at home

Auxerre's home stats of W6-D1-L3 impress - but, watching them play, it's obvious they come up short against packed defences. Rather than possessing the expansive skills of Bordeaux and Lille on their own patches, Auxerre rely on Poland international Ireneusz Jelen getting behind opposition defences on the break. That tactic will be difficult to employ against Boulogne's deep-lying back five.

Boulogne are in the relegation zone (19th) but confident they can survive in Ligue 1 because Gregory Thil, the club's all-time highest scorer, is scheduled to return from a five-month injury lay-off at the end of January. In the meantime, the pace and skill of Alexandre Cuvillier (two goals in 13 starts) and 20-year-old Zimbabwe international attacking midfielder Ovidi Karuru may earn the visitors a point.

Auxerre have won by more than a single goal in only three of their 10 home games this season - so there's little downside to backing Boulogne +1 on the Asian handicap at [2.10]. You'll get your money back if Boulogne lose by a single goal, and win if they pick up a point or win the match.

* James Eastham has made 1.62pts (after 5% commission) from 36pts staked (4.5% ROI) on Ligue 1 matches this season.