Ligue 1 Betting: Back fit-again striker Erding to fire PSG to victory

French Football / James Eastham / 03 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Talisman: PSG's results have been markedly better when Mevlut Erding's in the side

Recommended bets: Back PSG -0.75 on the Asian handicap to beat Nice @ 1.91; Le Mans v Auxerre draw @ 3.1; Lyon v Marseille draw @ 3.3.

Another 'best bet' winner last weekend means James Eastham has run up a 5.19pts profit (after 5% commission) from 11pts staked this season. Read on for his selections across this weekend's top division games in France. Best bet: PSG -0.75 v Nice @ 1.91.

PSG (10th) v Nice (14th) (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

It would be an exaggeration to call PSG a one-man team, but it was no surprise that they won when Mevlut Erding returned to the side last weekend.

Without their Turkey international, PSG have collected just two points from five games; with him, they've won four and drawn once. Last weekend, they thrashed Sochaux 4-1, their first victory in six games. Erding missed a penalty, but made amends later by scoring.

Few players in Ligue 1 hit the target with such a large proportion of their efforts on goal, which is why he'll be among the top scorers in the French League this season. Erding's presence lifts the standard of his team-mates' performances, because they know he can score at any time.

Nice caused one of the shocks of the season by thrashing a below-par Lyon 4-1 a fortnight ago but their 1-0 victory over Le Mans last weekend was more typical: nervy and narrow, despite facing 10 men for more than 70 minutes. Their defence lacks a single player worthy of inclusion in any of the country's top 10 sides, and won't contain Erding. I expect PSG to win by one or, possibly, two goals, so I support the hosts on the handicap.

Le Mans (19th) v Auxerre (5th) (Saturday, 6pm)

Le Mans, 19th, have lost six of their last eight games, failing to score in five of those matches. Auxerre, fifth, have won five and drawn one of their last seven fixtures.

So why are Le Mans [2.8] favourites and Auxerre [2.9] underdogs? I can only assume exchange players believe that all things must end, meaning the two sides' fortunes will reverse soon.

I'm less sure, having watched both sides recently. Le Mans lack leaders and have played poorly over the past two months. Auxerre's strikers, Ireneusz Jelen and Daniel Niculae, are in excellent form, having scored all five goals in the side's last two victories, over Lille (3-2) and Montpellier (2-1).

Auxerre's away stats (W1-D2-L1) are unconvincing, particularly as their only win, 1-0 at Rennes, came against opponents reduced to 10 men after 17 minutes. As a result, the draw's the value pick at [3.1].

Lyon (2nd) v Marseille (7th) (Sunday, 8pm)

The bookies are strangely besotted by Lyon. They installed Claude Puel's side as ante-post title favourites last July and have stuck to their guns since, despite the fact that defending champions Bordeaux are two points clear at the top.

The value pick in the title race are Marseille, who are five points behind Bordeaux but ought to improve during the second-half of the season, as their 10 summer signings will have settled in by then. Currently [5.7], l'OM are clearly the cleverest selection right now.

I expect Marseille will underline their credentials by picking up a point against Lyon at Stade de Gerland on Sunday night. The visitors have drawn two and one won of their three visits to the country's gastronomic capital over the past three seasons and have an extra day's rest going into the game. Lyon grabbed their last-gasp equaliser against Liverpool on Wednesday night while Marseille thrashed Zurich 6-1 24 hours earlier.

Marseille have a better away than home record this season, too: they've picked up 2pts per game on the road as opposed to 1.6pts at Stade Velodrome. At [3.3], the draw is overpriced in this fixture between such well-matched sides.