Ligue 1 Betting: Lyon to assert their authority before the international break

French Football / James Eastham / 01 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

Lisandro Lopez has hit the ground running since his summer arrival from FC Porto.

Recommended bets: Back Lyon to win at Lens @ 1.84; Sochaux v Le Mans over 2.5 goals @ 2.36.

Sochaux and Le Mans' coaches refuse to teach their sides how to defend - so back a high-scoring encounter when the teams meet on Saturday night, writes James Eastham. Meanwhile, Claude Puel's Lyon ought to extend their unbeaten run to 15 matches against struggling Lens. Best bet: Lyon to win at Lens @ [1.84].

Sochaux v Le Mans (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

Some sides play with two holding midfielders, others one - but none? That's the bizarre tactical decision Sochaux manager Francis Gillot has taken this season.

White-whiskered Gillot seems to think you can compete in one of Europe's five major leagues (the weakest, admittedly, but still) with a midfield comprising four players who love a square pass, and occasionally an incisive one, but jump out of tackles the minute an opponent gets within five yards. With the ball, Stephane Dalmat, Benjamin Gavanon and youngsters Vincent Nogueira, Ryad Boudebouz and Marvin Martin are thoughtful and creative; without it, they're useless. Sochaux have conceded 13 goals, the second-worst defensive record in the division, including seven in their last two games.

Le Mans coach Paulo Duarte has shown an equal distaste for defending since arriving in French football last June. The Portuguese strategist implores his players to attack every week regardless of the venue or the opposition, an approach that spawned a superb 3-0 win over Lens last weekend but is liable to cost his side points, as it did on the opening weekend of the season against Lyon (2-2).

Eight of 14 (57%) games involving these two sides have had over 2.5 goals, and the average number of goals per game is 2.86. Back over 2.5 goals at generous odds of [2.36].

Lens v Lyon (8pm, Saturday)

Lens won promotion back to Ligue 1 at the first attempt last season, but their chances of extending their stay in the top division beyond 12 months look slim.

The 'sang et or' ('blood and golds') have lost only three times in seven games this season, but their form is deteriorating. Last week's 3-0 defeat at Le Mans - potential relegation rivals - shows the direction Lens are heading in, and there's little manager Jean-Guy Wallemme can do about it because he simply doesn't have the players to arrest their slide.

The midfield is an area of particular concern: Serbia international Nenad Kovacevic is tenaciously effective, but Dejan Milovanovic, Adil Hermach and Samba Sow have yet to show they're good enough to play at this level. Striker Toufilou Maoulida, chronically off target at Marseille and Auxerre (2006-08), has somehow got the chance to add to his miserable tally of 53 goals in 280 Ligue 1 appearances. I'll be surprised if he nets more than six times this season.

Lyon beat Debrecen 4-0 in midweek without Lisandro Lopez and Michel Bastos, two members of their awesome strikeforce. The third part of their thrilling front three, Bafetimbi Gomis, is playing magnificently with or without the other two: the 24-year-old former St Etienne striker has scored seven goals in 10 games in all competitions since signing for 13m euro in July, silencing the doubters who said Lyon had paid over the odds.

Lyon are unbeaten in 14 games (11 wins, three draws) in all competitions stretching back to last season and will be determined to go out on a high before the international break. The gulf in class and confidence between these sides is bigger than the prices suggest, so back the visitors at [1.84].