French Football / James Eastham / 04 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Laurent Blanc's title-holders are the smartest bet of all 20 teams when the 2009-10 French League season gets under way this weekend, because their team has remained relatively unchanged over the summer and they're facing opponents caught up in a financial crisis, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Bordeaux -1 Asian handicap to beat Lens @ [2.00].

"There's very little downside to backing Bordeaux with a -1-goal start on the Asian handicap. If they win by at least one goal - as they have 76% of the time at home since that defeat to Lyon - you'll get your money back at least. If they win. by two goals or more, you'll make money."

Lille v Lorient (Sunday, 4pm UK time)

How about this for a story of football madness?

Lille managing director Xavier Thuilot sacked coach club coach Rudi Garcia on June 1, and set about looking for a new manager. Two weeks into the search, Lille president Michel Seydoux decided the whole thing had been a mistake, gave Thuilot the boot... and reappointed Garcia while handing himself day-to-day running of the club.

Hardly the most professional sequence of events, but Seydoux made the right decision. Garcia is one of France's brightest young managers, and it was baffling to see him sacked after leading Lille to fifth place last season. Seydoux insisted his club had emerged stronger from the affair, and while there was an element of PR bluff about that statement, pre-season results bear him out: Lille have won five out of five, scoring 12 goals and conceding none. They've done well in the transfer market, too, losing top scorer Michel Bastos to Lyon but retaining centre-half Adel Rami and Yohann Cabaye in the face of interest from Marseille and Bordeaux.

Lille's Sunday opponents, Lorient, would love to have lost just one star over the summer - but three flew the net, as right-back Christophe Jallet joined PSG, centre-half Mickael Ciani moved to Bordeaux and midfielder Fabrice Abriel is now at Marseille. Manager Christian Gourcuff has spent the 9m euro well, but Lorient will struggle at first to cope without their departed talismans, particularly against Sunday's more talented and powerful opponents.

I expected to find Lille around 1.6, so 1.8 represents excellent value.

Bordeaux v Lens (Sunday, 8pm UK time)

Lyon and Marseille have been the heaviest spenders in France over the summer, but Bordeaux kick-off the season in the best shape of all.

Laurent Blanc's title-winning side remains virtually untouched from 2008-09, which means they're a good bet to hit the ground running on Sunday afternoon. The unmistakable sense of continuity in the Girondins camp has resulted in some outstanding pre-season results, notably a 2-1 win over Marseille as part of a series of four straight victories to round-off their warm-up games.

Bordeaux also boast sensational home form: they are unbeaten in 33 matches (25 wins, eight draws) at Stade Chaban-Delmas since a 3-1 defeat against Lyon, champions at the time, in October 2007. It's hard to see Bordeaux's attack-minded 4-4-2 line-up letting down a 34,000 sell-out crowd.

Visitors Lens are making their Ligue 1 return following promotion last May but their summer has been dominated by a cashflow problem as the club haven't been able to move on the players that want to leave (Toifilou Maoulida, Aruna Dindane). As a result the team still has a Ligue 2 feel about it, which is the lastv thing you want when you're facing Bordeaux. Coach Jean-Guy Wallemme wanted to add four or five new faces, but the only notable arrival has been striker Eduardo, the two-goal hero of Guingamp's unlikely Coupe de France final triumph last May.

There's very little downside to backing Bordeaux with a -1-goal start on the Asian handicap. If they win by at least one goal - as they have 76% of the time at home since that defeat to Lyon - you'll get your money back at least. If they win. by two goals or more, you'll make money.

* James Eastham made 19.86pts profit (after 5% commission) from 83pts staked (23.9 ROI) on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets last season.