French Football Betting: I'm so sure about Sochaux

French Football / James Eastham / 02 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham tells us why PSG welcomed the international break and Stephane Dalmat may not be in the best frame of mind to turn out for Sochaux, who are a cracking bet nonetheless. Best bet: Back Sochaux to beat Rennes @ [2.92].

PSG v Nice (Sunday, 4pm kick-off UK time)

No side needed the international break more than PSG. In their last two games before the World Cup qualifiers took over, Paul Le Guen's side looked physically and mentally jaded, and their title challenge faltered as a result.

A 3-1 home defeat to arch-rivals Marseille on March 15 was followed by a 4-1 hammering at Toulouse, meaning they've had plenty to ponder over the past fortnight. But I believe the break will have done them a huge amount of good, particularly since few of their players are asked to perform in international colours these days. Only Stephane Sessegnon (Benin) and Peguy Luyindula (France) have been involved in any meaningful action over the past 10 days, so key players such as Zoumana Camara, Claude Makelele and Ludovic Giuly have been able to put their feet up.

A bonus for the hosts is that the visitors are an under-motivated side. Nice lie ninth in the table, which means they're safe from relegation but so far off the pace in the race for a European place that they've effectively nothing to play for. Even coach Frederic Antonetti has admitted he's finding it difficult to tease any sort of enthusiasm from a bunch of players who've got one eye on the holiday brochures.

PSG had a superb home record before that 3-1 reverse against Marseille - eight wins and one draw in their previous nine games. In that light, the [1.7] on the hosts appears justified, but I prefer the [2.3] on over 2.5 goals because PSG's defensive vulnerabilities mean they nearly always need to score more than once to win. Five of their last six home wins have involved more than 2.5 goals in the game - and I expect this match to pan out in exactly the same way.

Sochaux v Rennes (Sunday, 4pm)

Far from being a welcome opportunity for potential top-six finishers Rennes to gather themselves for the final sprint, the international break brought two layers of misery.

Jimmy Briand, centre-forward and eight-goal top scorer, suffered knee ligament damage on France duty that will rule him out for the rest of the season. Then Senegal centre-half Kader Mangane - Ligue 1's best in that role in 2008-09, in my view - was suspended until June 1 for a foul that left Valenciennes midfielder Jonathan Lacourt with a broken leg on March 21.

Rennes general manager Pierre Dreossi admitted the double blow had left the rest of the players "shocked", which is hardly the ideal state of mind for a trip to Sochaux. Not that the hosts have had an entirely restful fortnight themselves: club captain Stephane Dalmat was arrested on the Champs-Elysees on Monday morning just as the first commuters were on their way to work.

The difference in the Sochaux case is that Dalmat long ago ceased to be a vital element on the pitch. It's no coincidence that Sochaux have played their best football this season while Dalmat's been out injured, so I expect his far more professional team-mates to go about their business unaffected by negative headlines surrounding the club.

The players that really matter are strikers Mevlut Erding and Vaclav Sverkos, who form the most prolific partnership in the division. Sverkos, a January window signing from Banik Ostrava, came second in Ligue 1's Player of the Month poll for February, while eight-goal top scorer Erding is one of those predatory finishers whose senses sharpen when the goal comes into view.

Sverkos and Erding will benefit from Mangane's absence as Rennes' earnest but leaden-footed Sweden international Petter Hansson will struggle to contain the pair without his regular partner alongside him. In the circumstances, and given that Sochaux have an excellent home record (three straight wins and five in their last eight) I'm shocked by the generous odds on the hosts. Back Sochaux at [2.92].

* James Eastham has made 9.39pts profit (minus 5% commission) after staking 62pts (15.1% ROI) on Ligue 1 matches this season