French Football Betting: Exhausted Nancy enter the Lyon's den

French Football / James Eastham / 26 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham has made a profit of 4.34pts from staking 10pts on Ligue 1 clubs this season - but there's only one bet you should consider in France's notoriously tight top division this weekend.

Ligue 1 is the most homogenised major league in Europe. By that I mean, the gap between top and bottom is smaller than you find in England, Germany, Italy and Spain.

The average number of points separating teams finishing fourth from teams finishing 17th in the Premier League in each of the past five seasons is 29. The figures in Serie A and La Liga over the same period are 26pts and 25pts respectively. If you recalculate the points tallies in the Bundesliga so that the seasons appear to have been played over 38 games, rather than 34, the points differential between fourth and 17th is 27. So far, so similar.

In Ligue 1, the stat is a much smaller 18pts. So, while teams in the other four major leagues are pretty evenly spaced out from title contenders to bottom three, their counterparts in France are subject to a "concertina" effect - they're squeezed together in the middle between much tighter parameters.

The impact for punters is significant. Behind Lyon - [1.52] to win an eighth consecutive title - there is no established pecking order in France, which makes it much harder to predict the outcome of fixtures on any given weekend. We're waiting to see if Bordeaux, Marseille and, perhaps, a resurgent PSG can create a Big Three or Four in France this season but, in the meantime, it's undeniable that the differences in quality between the sides beneath Lyon are usually very slim indeed.

That's why factors like form, fitness and suspensions - the "variables", we could call them - come into play. Those issues aid your betting in all leagues, of course - but in France, where teams are almost impossible to separate when the playing field is metaphorically level, they take on greater significance.

One game this weekend where the "variables" favour one team over another is Lyon v Nancy (Saturday, 6pm kick-off UK time). This would be a mismatch in any circumstances - the home side are seven-times champions who have begun the season in dominant fashion, picking up 16 points from 18 and scoring 10 goals, conceding only two. The visitors lie 13th on seven points, having scored four and conceded four.

The "variable" that creates a particularly appealing betting opportunity this weekend is the sides' conflicting ability to handle the heavy schedules they're currently faced with. Lyon's squad is designed to effortlessly move from one game to another every three days, with coach Claude Puel having the luxury of 25 players and 19 internationals to pick from. So far, the former Lille manager has rotated his charges to largely winning effect, which means even the prospect of next Tuesday's night crucial Champions League trip to face Bayern Munich ought not to distract his players from this initial domestic matter.

By contrast, Nancy's hectic run of six games in 18 days - which they're in the middle of right now - has left boss Pablo Correa floundering. He's rotating his players, all right, but doesn't have the quality of personnel to maintain a winning run. And, crucially, Nancy had their most draining match of all just as Lyon's players were putting their feet up this week: Correa's boys needed extra-time beat Grenoble 3-2 in the Coupe de la Ligue on Wednesday night. Lyon were handed a bye to the next round. No prizes for guessing which set of players will be fresher come Saturday night.

That's why Puel's side are my pick this weekend. They have the experience, confidence and energy to thrive during busy periods of the season; Nancy don't. The champions are normally a sure thing - but, this time, they look a little surer than usual. Back them with a -1-goal start on the Asian handicap.

Recommended bet:

Lyon -1 [1.80]