Coupe de France betting: Minnows set to freeze out the big clubs

French Football / James Eastham / 06 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Man alone: Nice's France international striker Loic Remy will need to double his workload as several of his team-mates are away on international duty at the African Cup of Nations

"Ligue 1 sides have won only 16 of 34 away games against lower-league opposition at this stage of the competition in the past three seasons. By backing the draw or laying the highly-favoured visitors in every game, you'd have made a healthy profit."

With harsh weather conditions and difficult playing surfaces expected across France this weekend, opposing Ligue 1 sides at lower-ranking opponents is the best way to make a profit on a competition that always throws up upsets, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Lay Nice at Plabennec @ [1.85].

There's a general feeling that domestic cup competitions are not taken as seriously in other European countries as they are in England. While that may be true, the reduced importance of knock-out trophies on the continent does not make upsets more unlikely.

France is a good example. In the past decade, a lower-league side on the other side of the channel has had a far better chance of reaching the latter stages of the Coupe de France than their English counterparts have had of progressing to the final rounds of the FA Cup. The most salient instance came in 2000, when fourth division amateurs Calais reached the final. Other examples include Nimes (third division) and Montceau (fourth division), who reached the semi-finals in 2005 and 2007 respectively, and Guingamp, the second-division side that lifted last season's trophy.

The round of 64 - France's equivalent of the third round - takes place this weekend, and the smart money suggests that, as usual, several Ligue 1 sides will struggle to progress to the round of 32.

If you ignore all-Ligue 1 ties, only 21 of 44 Ligue 1 sides have won within 90 minutes in the past three seasons. The defeat rate is low - 6/44 - and the draw rate is high (17/44).

I'd focus on away games, where poor weather conditions, difficult journeys and uneven surfaces will make life particularly difficult for top-flight jollies. Ligue 1 sides have won only 16 of 34 away games against lower-league opposition at this stage of the competition in the past three seasons. By backing the draw (15/34) or laying the highly-favoured visitors in every game, you'd have made a healthy profit.

The draw rate barely wavers regardless of the quality of the opposition. Ligue 1 sides have drawn three of six visits to Ligue 2 hosts, seven of 16 trips to fourth-tier hosts and two of four against sixth division or lower hosts. The status of the home side isn't a factor.

I recommend laying all 10 Ligue 1 teams travelling to face lower-league opposition this weekend. Nice are my best bet, as eight of their first-team squad - including their best defender, Onyekachi Apam, and first-choice centre-forward, Mamadou Bagayoko - are on African Nations Cup duty.

Coupe de France round of 64 recommended bets:

NB: Vary stakes to risk 1pt per game