Coupe de France Betting: Lay the hosts in Riviera rivalry

French Football / James Eastham / 22 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham has made 9.34pts profit (after 5% commission) on 54.5pts staked (17.1% ROI) on French clubs in all competitions this season. Will he pick the best bets from this weekend's Coupe de France action?

The last 32 of the Coupe de France takes place this weekend, with 14 matches on the agenda. Why only 14? Because Guingamp beat fellow Ligue 2 outfit Brest 2-0 in a game brought forward last Tuesday, and Lyon's trip to Concarneau this Saturday is actually their last 64 tie postponed three weeks ago. Much to Lyon's fury - the French champions wanted a midweek fixture - the game was rescheduled for this weekend. The winners face Marseille in the last 32 next Wednesday.

As usual, the glamour ties are not necessarily the smartest betting picks. Rennes host St Etienne, but that's one game I'll definitely be avoiding. Rennes lost for the first time in 19 Ligue 1 fixtures last weekend (1-0 at Lille) and I'd rather assess how they respond to that setback before betting on games involving them.

Motivational issues

At Stade Jules-Deschaseaux, there will be serious doubts about the hosts' motivation when Le Havre take on Le Mans. Les havrais lie eight points from safety at the foot of Ligue 1, so coach Frederic Hantz may rather see his team knocked out than face distractions from the more pressing concern of top-flight survival in the weeks to come. Uncertainty over the home team's desire makes this a match to avoid.

The biggest outsiders in the competition are Alsatian amateurs Schirrhein, who host Toulouse, a surprisingly high fifth in Ligue 1. Much of Toulouse's unexpected progress this season (they avoided relegation on only the final day of 2007-08) has been down to Andre-Pierre Gignac, their rejuvenated 23-year-old striker, who has scored 13 times this season, which represents 54% of all their goals. The amateurs' chances appear to lie in the hands of TFC coach Alain Casanova - because if the rookie boss (this is his first season in charge) leaves Gignac on the bench, Schirrhein will suddenly become an appealing proposition on the handicap.

PSG to sail through

Yet another power struggle at PSG - the club's shareholders look likely to boot out president Charles Villeneuve in the days ahead - has threatened to undermine the players' trip to Corsica this weekend, but Paul Le Guen's side should be too powerful for non-league GFCO Ajaccio. Le Guen is likely to name a second-string side, but that won't necessarily render them weaker. Teenage centre-half Mamadou Sakho, diligent midfielder Clement Chantome, powerful winger Fabrice Pancrate and selfless striker Peguy Luyindula have thrived when handed the opportunity to impress in the Uefa Cup, Coupe de France and Coupe de la Ligue this season. I expect nothing less than a comfortable victory for the seven-times winners.

Another side I predict will neatly sidestep a banana skin is Lille, who kick-off the weekend action with a 64km-trip along the northern French coastline to face fourth-division Dunkerque on Friday night. Lille made short work of Sainte-Genevieve-des-Bois - also from the fourth division - in the previous round (3-0), so have already shown their ability to skip past lower-league opposition with the minimum of fuss. Lille have lost just once in their last 19 games in all competitions and this is not the occasion to sully those stats.

Riviera rivals

The one all-Ligue 1 tie that presents a genuine betting opportunity is Monaco v Nice. The two clubs lie just 13km apart along the Riviera, the shortest distance separating any two top-flight sides. Such proximity enables Nice's larger, more boisterous fanbase to turn Monaco's Stade Louis II into a home from home, zipping along the coast on their Vespas to deck out their rivals' venue in red and black drapes.

The fact that Monaco virtually become the away team on these occasions is reflected in the head-to-heads - Nice have won two and drawn four of six meetings on Monegasque soil since returning to the top flight in 2002. Throw in the fact that Nice have won two out of two against Ligue 1 opposition since the turn of the year, that Monaco are winless in five (W0-D2-L3), and the [3.35] price on Nice starts to look tempting.

I favour the more cautious option of laying the hosts - that high draw rate ought not be overlooked and Monaco are in excellent scoring form, having netted in each of their last nine outings - but I'm confident Nice will avoid defeat in 90 minutes.

Recommended bets:

Lay Monaco at home to Nice in 90 minutes [2.44]