The Perfect Punter - Week 31: Scouts honour

European Leagues / Perfect Punter / 10 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

What were Manchester United scouts thinking when they recommended Massimo Taibi to Sir Alex?

"If you are going to risk one cent on a sporting event, then treat your betting account as a major corporation (don’t laugh)... Identify key factors in the game and judge the mood and motivation of those involved."

Dave Farrar takes lessons in analysis from a top football scout and explains why putting yourself on the touchline isn't enough; now you have to get inside the heads of sport's protagonists. Next he'll be telling us to "be the ball"...

I can't be too specific here because I promised not to be, but I recently spent some time with a scout from a major European football club. Good scouts always know more about football players, and the mechanics of a club, than almost anyone else; scouts never believe what they're told, only what they see and what they can work out for themselves. They must get enough information to form a reasoned opinion, come to a "yes or no" conclusion, and minimise risk. In fact, in the sense that they march to their own tune and are experts in what they do, they have a remarkably similar make up to the successful punter.

I've written before in this column of the need to place yourself inside the stadium when you have a bet on a football match, courtside when you trade on tennis, as near as possible to the fairway if golf is your game. After listening carefully, and watching how a scout operates, I think that you need to do more than that. There must be room left for instinct, but if you are going to risk one cent on a sporting event, then treat your betting account as a major corporation (don't laugh) and see yourself as an agent for it.

Don't just place yourself pitchside, but try to identify the key factors in the game and judge the mood and motivation of those involved. The stats are there, and you're chucking away your employer's money if you don't use them. Given that, in this case, your employer is you, why wouldn't you do as much as you can?

Some players are much more effective against better opposition, some are flat track bullies. Some respond well to a bad performance and others hide away. Some teams never know that they're beaten while others fold. Don't just wave a mental wand at these facts, know them, and you'll be a better gambler.

Many people think that all that scouts do is watch videos, take notes, and come to a conclusion. That's what the bad ones do. I once met the chief scout of another major club, and I was frightened by what he didn't know. After a drink or two, his tongue loosened and he talked of players that were "quality", and were his and his manager's "kind of players." This might impress hangers on in a bar, but unless you've done your research, it's utter nonsense. Instinct on its own is worthless. Allied to exhaustive research, it's priceless. This bloke had a big mouth, a stack of videos and nothing more. And guess what? Since I met him, his club has nose-dived, largely because of appalling activity in the transfer market. He's the gob on a stick in a betting shop, the wise-after-the-event merchant who none of us want to be.

The scout I met recently is pure class. I was so impressed by his attitude and knowledge that I'll be backing his club at a decent price to win their domestic title next year. Nothing is left to chance, every detail is uncovered, and he knows about the players and their characters, their likes and dislikes, strengths and weaknesses, and exactly what they can do. And then he leaves a small gap for instinct. And how he does it is through hard work and attention to detail; not because he knows people that you and I don't, or because he has access to film that we don't, but because he makes it his job to find out.

If punting is about making money, and it surely has to be, then start thinking of yourself as a scout and a researcher, as omniscient as you can be, and I bet that you start to see things more clearly. Be the professional, not the prat propping up the bar, and watch it pay dividends.

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