The European Bettorlogic Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 05 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jose Reyes is out injured for a month

Bettorlogic tell us who is out injured this weekend and how we can take advantage of knowing what tends to happen when they're away...

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Racing Santander v Atletico Madrid

Jose Antonio Reyes

Atletico won the first of three meetings inside a week with Racing, when they thumped them 4-0 in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-finals on Thursday night. One of the goal-scorers was former Arsenal player Jose Antonio Reyes. However, the Spaniard went off with strained knee ligaments and will be out for the next month.

After leaving Arsenal permanently for Atletico at the start of the 2007/08 season, Reyes suffered a poor first year and was loaned out to Benfica last term. However, back at the Vicente Calderon, Reyes has flourished this season, securing a first team berth and helping them to five wins in his eight appearances. This is in stark contrast to Atletico's form without him, winning only once and losing half of their 12 other matches.

Impressively, Atletico have averaged 2.25 goals per game with Reyes this season, compared to just one goal per game without him, while their average goals conceded have risen dramatically in his absence - up 79% from 1.12 per game to 2.0.

Racing will be gunning for revenge following their midweek drubbing and with Reyes out of action, they look reasonable value to take the three points at [2.6].

Round-up

Koln v Hamburg

Koln are without the injured duo of Fabrice Ehret and Manasseh Ishiaku, and that should mean goals. Midfielder Ehret has played 36 and missed 18 of Koln's games since the start of last season, their average goals scored rising by 47% (from 0.83 per game with him to 1.22 per game without) and their average goals conceded by 16% (from 1.19 to 1.56). While Ishiaku is a less important figure, having played just nine of Koln's 54 games, there is also a big increase in goals when he's been missing. The net result has been that the number of games with over 2.5 goals when Ehret doesn't start increases from 39% to 61%, while for Ishiaku just one of his nine matches had three or more goals compared to 53% of those he has missed.

Hamburg are generally a free scoring team and with Koln missing players, this match looks set for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals [2.19].

Hoffenheim v Hannover

Hoffenheim welcome back a few players this week from the African Cup of Nations while Hannover are suffering a massive injury crisis, depriving them of 11 players from their first team squad. Included among them is striker Jan Schlaudraff who's been Hannover's second-top scorer since the start of last season with seven goals in 14 appearances. When he's played, Hannover have averaged 1.14 points per game, while in the 40 matches without him this drops slightly to 1.02 PPG. More significantly, they've been behind at half-time in just four (29%) of their games with Schlaudraff including only two of the last 11., compared to in half their games without him, as they've suffered 16 (40%) L/Ls.

With Hannover in freefall and Hoffenheim boosted by the return of Chinedu Obasi and Isaac Vorsah, the home team should win this comfortably and the Win/Win double on the half-time/full-time market looks good value at [2.60].

Genoa v Chievo

Domenico Criscito is serving a one-match ban for Genoa and the Italian international has been a key part of the Genoa defence since the start of last season. In this time the left-back has played 47 and missed only 13 of Genoa's matches with their PPG falling by 15% from 1.72 to 1.46. Criscito's defensive strength is highlighted in this sample by Genoa's average goals conceded rising from 1.11 per game with him, to 1.77 without - a massive 59% increase. Specifically at home, where he's played 22 of 30 matches, their average goals conceded increases from 0.95 with him to 1.75 without. As a result, there has been a big increase in the number of Genoa matches with over 2.5 goals when Criscito has been absent, rising from 40% to 77%, including seven of the eight he's missed at home.

Genoa go into this match as odds-on favourites, but with Criscito absent they look likely to concede and the over 2.5 goals market holds good value at [2.11].