The Bettorlogic Injuries and Suspensions Column: Can Atletico win without their talisman?

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 19 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Sergio Aguero's absence means Atletico should be opposed at Mallorca

"Aguero has played in 106 of Atletico Madrid’s 140 league matches since 2006/07 and, as one would expect, their performance takes a nosedive when he is absent."

Atletico Madrid look vulnerable without their star striker and Barca are weakened by the absence of their midfield lynchpin. Meanwhile, Valenciennes back-line will be weakened without their Ivorian defender.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Mallorca v Atletico Madrid

Sergio Aguero

Atletico Madrid superstar Sergio Aguero will miss their trip to Mallorca after he picked up his fifth booking of the season in his side's 1-0 victory over Osasuna on Monday night. Along with Aguero, Portuguese winger Simao is also absent after being dismissed in the same match. The Portuguese star has been a regular starter for Atletico since joining from Benfica in 2007, but it is Aguero who is the biggest loss.

The Argentinean forward has played in 106 of Atletico Madrid's 140 league matches since 2006/07 and, as one would expect, their performance takes a nosedive when he is absent. The visitors have a PPG of 1.78 with him and just 1.06 without him. Similarly, there is a 27% decline in the number of goals Atletico score when Aguero hasn't been playing -- down from 1.76 per game with him to 1.29 without him.

Atletico Madrid's change in form when Aguero doesn't play is consistent both home and away. On the road, their PPG drops 21% to 1.11 from 1.41, although the amount of goals they score remains stable. Interestingly, 51% of Atletico's away fixtures settle the +2.5 goals market when Aguero is in the team compared to 37% when he is absent.

Even with a full-strength XI, Mallorca represented a tricky away day. The hosts have been excellent at home all season with 12 wins from 13 games and against an Atletico team devoid of the talents of Simao and, more pertinently Aguero, they look excellent value to win at [2.20].

Round-up

Real Zaragoza v Barcelona

Xavi

Barcelona's talismanic midfielder Xavi tends to be the first name on the team sheet for Pep Guardiola, but the Spaniard is injured for their trip to Zaragoza on Sunday. Only goalkeeper Victor Valdes (three) has been absent for fewer games than Xavi (six) since the start of last season. Barca have been beaten in just four of the 58 matches in which Xavi has been present but they have lost two of the six games he has missed.

Barcelona remain rightly favourites for this match (they have a PPG of 2.19 since 2008/09), but they have scored just one goal in each of he away games that Xavi has missed. This is a good opportunity to back Zaragoza +1.5 on the Asian handicap at [2.03]

Montpellier v Valenciennes

Siaka Tiene

Valenciennes suffered an embarrassing 2-0 home defeat to Rennes last weekend in which Siaka Tiene was dismissed in the second half. The Ivory Coast defender is an integral part of Valenciennes back-line having played in 48 of their 66 Ligue 1 fixtures since the start of last season. 54% of Valenciennes matches have seen no more than two goals when Tiene has played, but this increases to a staggering 83% when he is missing.

Ligue 1 throws up a lot of low-scoring matches and this looks sure to be another instance, under goals can be backed at [1.71] and is a great opportunity.

Atalanta v Livorno

Cristiano Doni

Atalanta will be expecting to pick up three points against promoted Livorno, but the hosts will have to do so without key midfield Christiano Doni. Stretching back to the start of last season, Doni has played in 24 of Atalanta's 32 home matches and the most significant difference occurs in the number of goals they score. As a result there is an increase from 58% to 75% in the amount of under goals matches they are involved in when he is absent.

Livorno follow similar under goals trends as their opponents -- 60% of their away fixtures this term have seen no more than a brace of scores -- and as such under 2.5 goals should be backed at [1.72].