The Bettorlogic Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 12 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mauro Zarate is absent for Lazio after being needlessly sent off last week

"Mauro Zarate was red-carded last weekend in Lazio’s defeat at Sampdoria and his absence should significantly damage Lazio’s chances of easing their relegation worries against Bari."

As big-name players sit out this weekend's action through injury and suspension, Bettorlogic look at what tends to happen in their absence.

Click here to subscribe to Player PRO and have a free 14 day trial.

Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Leverkusen v Hamburg

Toni Kroos

Leverkusen's rising star Toni Kroos is suspended ahead of this big top-six clash with Hamburg, and with Stefan Reinartz and Simon Rolfes also out, Jupp Heynckes' side face a selection dilemma in midfield. Kroos made his international debut for Germany in the recent friendly against Argentina and has been one of Leverkusen's most impressive performers this season as they'd been unbeaten up until last weekend.

Currently on loan from Bayern Munich, the midfielder has played 25 and missed 17 of Leverkusen's games since joining them in the middle of last season, and since the start of 2008/09 only Stefan Kiessling has scored more than Kroos' 10 goals. As a result, Leverkusen's average goals scored have fallen by 31% when Kroos hasn't been playing - down from 2.04 per game with him to just 1.41 without.

Their resulting loss rate has increased from just 12% with him to 35% without, with their average points per game falling by 13%. These stats are even more lopsided when purely looking at Leverkusen's home matches, unbeaten with eight wins in 13 games with Kroos, winning just two and losing three of eight without him. This has seen a fall in PPG from 2.23 to just 1.14; not surprising given their goals per game has fallen from 2.54 to 1.14 with goals conceded increasing from 0.77 to 1.43 when Kroos hasn't played.

Along with their massive disparity in results with and without Kroos, there's also been a significant drop in the number of games with over 2.5 goals when he's been absent, falling from 72% to just 41%.

Leverkusen's ability to win this match is massively in question given their selection problems in the middle of the park and Toni Kroos' absence has deprived them of one of their best attacking weapons. Having lost last week for the first time this season Bayer may well struggle to pick themselves back up and Hamburg look excellent value on the Asian Handicap +0&+0.5 at [2.16], while this looks like being a much lower scoring affair than expected with under 2.5 goals worth backing at [2.08].

Round-up

Tenerife v Espanyol

Espanyol's current problems in front of goal have not been helped by the suspension of forward Jose Callejon for his sending off last week. Callejon has played 28 and missed 35 of Espanyol's games since the start of last season and while not a prolific scorer himself, his play has helped Espanyol to lose only 25% of their matches with him compared to 54% without - including all six games he's missed this season, without scoring a single goal.

Tenerife have a fairly average home record this season but have already had to play all of the current top seven and have won half their other six home games. With Espanyol weakened for this game we expect Tenerife to take full advantage and feel they offer good value for the win at [2.36].

Genoa v Cagliari

Cagliari travel to Genoa on Sunday with both teams currently level on points. However the Islanders will miss defender Michele Canini through suspension. The former Italy Under-21 international has held down a regular first-team spot this season and while there has been little difference in Cagliari's results since 2008/09 in the 40 matches he's played compared to the 25 he's missed, there has been a significant shift in the number of goals those matches have featured. With Canini, Cagliari have scored 36% more goals per game at 1.58 compared to 1.16, while also conceding 82% more - up from 0.88 per game to 1.60. This has resulted in a big drop in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals when he's not been playing - down from 63% with him to 28% without.

With both teams being in the top five this season for goals scored the layers are clearly expecting a high-scoring affair but the stats without Canini suggest otherwise and that the value lies in backing under 2.5 goals at [2.18].

Lazio v Bari

Mauro Zarate was red-carded last weekend in Lazio's defeat at Sampdoria and his absence should significantly damage Lazio's chances of easing their relegation worries against Bari. The Argentinean striker has played 53 of Lazio's 65 game since the start of last season and while they've won 32% and lost 42 of their matches with him, those stats weaken to a win rate of just 25% and a loss rate of 58%. Overall this has seen a 25% fall in PPG when he's not been playing, down from 1.23 to just 0.92.

Furthermore, without their leading scorer - Zarate's hit the back of the net on 15 occasions since 2008/09 compared to a high of five from anyone else - Lazio's average goals scored have fallen from 1.11 per game to just 0.75, with the knock-on affect being that the number of games with over 2.5 goals has fallen from 40% with the former Birmingham player to just 17% without. Even more damningly, Lazio have failed to score in five of their last seven matches without Zarate.

Lazio look to be far too short to win this match in the absence of their best attacker and while Bari have been struggling on the road of late we would still expect them to get something from this game, and would either look to back the draw at [3.40] or lay Lazio to win at [1.94].