The Bettorlogic European Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 25 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

The absence of Mathieu Flammini significantly increases the chances of an over 2.5 goals match when Milan play.

"Last season’s Serie B champions Bari can take advantage of Flamini’s absence and the 1.95 currently being offered for +2.5 goals looks good value."

This weekend the likes of AC Milan's Mathieu Flammini and Villarreal's Ariel Ibagaza will be out of action through suspension and injury respecively. Bettorlogic assess the significance of their absences and a couple of others from a betting perspective.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Deportivo v Villarreal

Ariel Ibagaza

Villarreal's Argentinean midfielder Ariel Ibagaza is out of their trip to Deportivo on Sunday night. The playmaker signed from Mallorca at the start of last season and has made 18 appearances for the Yellow Submarines in 42 games since then.

When he has played, he's helped Villarreal record some impressive results, winning 10 and losing just three of the 18 matches he's started, but winning only eight (W8-D8-L8) of the 24 he's missed. The net effect of this has been a 34% fall in Villarreal's points per game from 1.94 with Ibagaza to just 1.33 without him.

Surprisingly though, Villarreal have actually scored fewer goals when El Caño has played - an average of 1.44 goals per game with him compared to 1.63 without. However, there's been a far bigger difference in the number of goals they've conceded without him - picking the ball out of their own net 42 times in 24 games without him, compared to just 19 times in the 18 he's started - 0.7 less goals per game. As a result, the number of games with three or more goals rises significantly when Ibagaza doesn't play, from 39% to 71%.

This match promises to be a high-scoring affair given his absence and the [2.04] available for +2.5 goals looks good value.

Round-up

AC Milan v Bari

Former Arsenal midfielder Mathieu Flamini is suspended this weekend following his sending off last weekend as Milan tumbled to defeat at Udinese. The French international has failed to hold down a starting position since joining Milan and has only played a fraction over half of the Rossoneri's 43 games in this time. Whilst Milan's record is virtually identical with and without him, the number of goals increases significantly when he doesn't play. The defensive midfielder has helped Milan concede just 0.77 goals per game in his 22 games, rising to 1.14 goals per game in the 21 he's missed. As a result, the number of games with three or more goals has also increased from 45% with Flamini to 57% without.

Last season's Serie B champions Bari can take advantage of Flamini's absence and the [1.95] currently being offered for +2.5 goals looks good value.

Auxerre v Grenoble

Bostjan Cesar is out for the visitors and leaving Grenoble to confront a worrying recent pattern. Since he signed in January from Marseille, Grenoble have played seven matches without him and lost every time, only scoring once and suffering five L/L double results. This can be compared to their results in the 17 matches he has played, where they average over a point per game, winning four times and losing six. Not surprisingly, the number of goals they've conceded has risen substantially in the games he's missed, up by 53% to 1.71.

Auxerre should take full advantage of Grenoble's weakened defence and both the [1.69] for the win and the [2.66] available for the W/W look good options.

St Mirren v Celtic

Aiden McGeady will be missing for Celtic this weekend having picked up an ankle injury in the midweek win over Falkirk. The Irish international winger has played 25 of Celtic's 43 matches since the start of last season and has proven one of The Hoops' most effective attackers. Celtic have scored an average of 2.28 goals per game when he's played, compared to 1.94 when he's been missing. As a result, the number of matches featuring more than two goals has been significantly higher, up to 64% with him in the starting line-up (from 50% without).

Without McGeady, St Mirren are likelier to limit Celtic's goal-scoring chances and there looks to be some value in supporting -2.5 goals at [2.06].