The Bettorlogic European Injuries And Suspensions Column

European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 02 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Bordeaux are currently [2.02] to win the match and while Les Girondins are hard to oppose right now the [3.4] on offer for the draw looks good value."

Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB* Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

St Etienne v Bordeaux

Yoann Gourcuff

Bordeaux travel to St Etienne without their star player after Yoann Gourcuff limped off during Bordeaux's mid-week Champions League win with a thigh injury. The reigning Ligue 1 Player of the Year has started this season in the same vein as last term, propelling Les Girondins straight to the top of the table.

Since the start of last season, Gourcuff has missed just four of 45 matches for Bordeaux - helping his team win 71% of the matches he's played, including 49 points from the last 51 available. However, in the four matches he's missed, Bordeaux have won just once, drawing on the other three occasions.

The best attacker in the league has been fundamental to Bordeaux's recent success and without him their number of goals scored has fallen from 1.80 per game to just five in four matches - and as a result the number of matches with three or more goals has fallen from 54% to 25% when Gourcuff doesn't start.

Bordeaux are currently [2.02] to win the match and while Les Girondins are hard to oppose right now the [3.4] on offer for the draw looks good value in the circumstances. However, the stronger pattern is for under-goals, with Bordeaux likely to play tighter - and -2.5 goals can be backed at [1.71].

Round-up

Borussia M'gladbach v Borussia Dortmund

Monchengladbach are still without their captain Filip Daems who remains sidelined through injury. The absence of the Belgian international is liable to significantly weaken The Foals defence, as they've conceded 25% goals per game more in the nine matches he's missed since the start of last season (2.22 goals per game) when compared with the 32 he's played (1.78). This has resulted in the percentage of over-goals matches increasing from 56% to 78% without him.

In this context, the [1.86] on offer for over 2.5 goals looks good vlaue.

Fiorentina v Lazio

Fiorentina are in fantastic form right now, following four wins in their last five league matches and a comprehensive win over Liverpool in the Champions League this week. However, they will be without their captain Dario Dainelli through suspension as well as Argentinean winger Mario Santana and right-back Gianluca Commotto, who are both injured.

Without Dainelli, the Viola have been far tighter in defence since the start of last season - the Italian defender missing 23 of 44 games over this period - and the number of goals conceded falling by 36% from 1.19 to 0.74 in his absence - and the number of +2.5 goals matches falling from 57% to 22% when Dainelli has been missing. There has also been an increase in under 2.5 goal games when Comotto has been missing, 10 of the 15 he's missed since the start of last season finishing that way - as have 17 of the 26 matches Santana hasn't started.

Fiorentina's absences will probably not have a significant impact on the match outcome this weekend but they should increase the chance of a low scoring game and the [1.90] available for under 2.5 goals warrants interest.

Palermo v Juventus

Alessandro Del Piero suffered his latest injury setback this season when he limped out of training on Thursday with a thigh strain. However, the absence of the Italian legend may actually be good news for Juventus. Since the start of last season, Del Piero has played half of Juve's 22 away matches - producing a disappointing return of four wins and three defeats. Without him, the Zebras have won eight of their 11 matches and been beaten only once. Overall, Del Piero has played 26 of 44 matches since the start of last season, Juventus averaging 1.88 points per game when he starts, compared to 2.17 PPG when he doesn't.

With Del Piero out for Juventus and Diego set to return, the Old Lady looks good value at [2.12] to deliver all three points at Palermo.