Serie A Betting: Season Preview

European Leagues / Dave Farrar / 29 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

The most open Serie A season for years starts this weekend and the enticing opening fixtures will tell us a great deal about how the season will shape up, says Dave Farrar.

It's rare that we get a chance to find out so much about title contenders so early in the season, so I'm going to break tradition and save my "pre-season" tips until Wednesday, once I've seen everyone play.

I don't think the prices in the outright market will alter dramatically after one game, and like the practice of watching the first ten minutes of a football match before betting on it, let's apply that to Serie A. Juve are a massive price at [6.6], but before putting them up with confidence, I want to spend a weekend watching. Of the five potential title contenders, Milan play Bologna and Roma take on Napoli, but it's the other three in whom I'm really interested this weekend.

Fiorentina v Juventus

The best game of the weekend is the last. On Sunday night at 19:30 UK time, two of the potential top 5 in play at the Artemio Franchi. Both should be stronger than last season, with Fiorentina having signed Alberto Gilardino from Milan to supplement Adrian Mutu in attack. Juventus have not bought in many players but have added real quality in Amauri and Cristian Poulsen, and that may give them the edge in the title race .

The two teams produced five goals when they met in Turin last season, and the 1-1 draw in Florence was entertaining. There's a huge temptation to go over 2.5 goals here, but there's too much of a danger that these high class sides will want to feel each other out in the opening game. I'm more interested in the way the teams play than the result, which I think will be a draw.

Sampdoria v Inter

The first of many moments of truth arrives for Jose Mourinho on Saturday night, leaving the notoriously pedantic Italian football press two chances to analyse what he gets right and wrong. Gazzetta Dello Sport will have a lot to say about the new Inter coach on Sunday morning. Mourinho already has a trophy under his belt, although his side weren't entirely convincing against Roma in the Super Cup.

The new look Inter should be too good for Samp, who are probably going to be missing their new signing Daniele Dessena, but I'm not too keen to back them at [1.99], with the draw the most likely outcome. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is another game to leave alone for now, but from which we can get a great idea of who is going to challenge for the Scudetto. I have serious doubts about Mourinho's Inter, but if they come through this test with fluency and style, then I may start to be convinced. For the moment, though, I can't back them at [2.38] to win Serie A.

Udinese v Palermo

Last season, Udinese and Palermo were two of the most entertaining teams in Serie A. Palermo's matches averaged 2.87 goals a game, and Udinese's 2.74, and there's no reason to think that will change this time around, with both of them having defensive problems ahead of this game, and with Palermo already showing vulnerability, knocked out of the Coppa Italia by Ravenna in midweek. The sides played four times last season, and not one of the matches had over 2.5 goals, but I can't ignore a price of [2.0] for overs here, and so that's the bet.

Atalanta v Siena

Atalanta surprised everyone in Italy by finishing 9th last season, but what was most surprising was the way that they did it. They played open, attacking football, and only games involving Catania and Inter produced more goals than those involving Gigi Del Neri's team. They scraped a win in the Coppa Italia in midweek against Modena, and have a couple of injuries, but the key man for Atalanta, even at the age of 35, is Cristiano Doni. When he plays, they create chances, and he's playing on Sunday. Siena won 4-0 in the Cup in midweek and tend to score goals on the counter attack, so this is where I'm looking for goals this weekend.

Wednesday then, for final conclusions about who to back to win Serie A, although my early feeling is to back Juventus and lay AC Milan.

The Top Goalscorer market has thrown up a number of unlikely winners over the last few years, with Del Piero and Totti mildly surprising over the last two seasons, and the likes of rank outsiders Cristiano Lucarelli and Dario Hubner winning two of the last five capocannoniere titles before that. I like the chances of Alexandre Pato a lot. Towards the end of last season he scored 9 goals in 13 games, and will have plenty of chances this year with Ronaldinho and Kaka supplying him. He is massive value at around [16.0].

The other name that might be worth a punt is a less well known Brazilian. While playing for Le Mans last season, Palermo's Tulio De Melo struck me as the kind of player who might score goals wherever he plays. I'd want to get him matched at [60.0] or over before I back him, but he's the one to have a bit of fun with this season, with the larger part of your stake going on Pato.

Recommendations

Outright:

Pato to be Top Goalscorer [16.0]

Tulio De Melo to be Top Goalscorer [60.0 at least]

This weekend:

Over 2.5 goals and 3.5 goals in Atalanta v Siena

Over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Palermo