Serie A betting: Kaka-inspired Milan out to down Lazio

European Leagues / Dan Fitch / 29 February 2008 / Leave a comment

Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch wonders why Milan just can't win at home in Serie A and why that can change against Lazio on Saturday night, a match available on Betfair Live Video

It's easy to get what you want, but harder to keep hold of it. This is a lesson my fiancé would do best to heed prior to our nuptials and one that AC Milan have recently learnt the hard way.

Last week I wrote about how Milan were on the cusp of a place in the top four. They managed to leapfrog Fiorentina at the weekend to take fourth place, only to fall back to fifth in midweek, as if attached to the position by a length of elastic.

On Saturday evening, Milan have the chance to one again move up a position, when they meet Lazio. With Fiorentina facing a tricky trip to Juventus, the Rossoneiri will fancy their chances of being able to luxuriate in their surroundings, for a bit longer this time. As ever, all the action can be seen on Betfair Live Video.

Things started badly for Milan last weekend, when they went down to a Mark Bresciano goal that really should have been dealt with. The home side equalised, when a wonderfully deep cross from Oddo allowed Ambrosini to slide in unmarked. Milan struggled to create a decent chance after this, with long range efforts from Kaka and Pato, being their closest efforts.

That was until the very last minute, when Pippo Inzaghi did what no one expected of him. He stayed onside. As the Palermo defence rushed out, the substitute Inzaghi found himself in yards of space and tucked away his first Serie A goal in more than a year. With Fiorentina losing 1-0 away at Roma, this was an extremely timely goal.

But the importance of this goal was short lived, as for the second time this season, Milan slipped up to Catania. Back when Milan were experimenting with the notion of not winning a home game all season, they somehow conceived to lose to relegation struggling Catania 2-1. Milan had the chance to gain revenge when Pato gave them the lead, but within minutes Catania had equalised and the game ended all square.

To be fair to Milan, they were without several of their first team players against Catania. It will be interesting to see whether Milan will risk any half fit players against Lazio, with the vital Champions League game against Arsenal to come on Tuesday. If it comes down to a question of priorities, then expect Milan to put this year's Champions League, over qualification for next year's.

On Saturday they face a Lazio side just about keeping their heads above the relegation zone. Lazio have an abysmal away record, winning only once on the road this season. They also have a poor record in this fixture, having not beaten Milan since 1998.

The decline of Lazio this season has not been that surprising, despite their third place finish last year. The match fixing scandal saw them lose any European football last season, leaving them free to concentrate on Serie A. Their success lead to Champions League qualification, but their slender squad has struggled with the fixture build up.

Lazio no longer have the financial clout that saw them bring in the likes of Veron, Vieri and indeed, Paul Gascoigne and Glenn Roeder. During the transfer window they secured the loan signings of Rolando Bianchi from Manchester City and David Rozehnal from Newcastle, but it's hard to see these signings inspiring a second half of season revival.

Milan can be backed at [2.06], with the draw [3.15] and Lazio [4.9]. It's not often that Milan are evens or more against a bottom half side, so this price must reflect punters' apprehension at Milan's patchy form and threadbare squad. But Milan will surely be boosted by the news that Kaka has spurned the overtures of the Carling Cup runners up, to extend his stay at the San Siro..

At that price, I'd back a Milan win, with perhaps a small covering bet on the 0-0 correct score at [10]. Milan can get what they want this weekend, but with a Champions League fixture to come, will they want it enough?