Serie A Betting: Can Inter crawl over the line in final day title race drama?

European Leagues / Dan Fitch / 16 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Last Sunday, Inter Milan were level at 2-2 against Siena. Marco Materazzi won a penalty, barged first-choice penalty taker Julio Cruz out of the way, and promptly spurned the opportunity to seal the Scudetto for the Nerazzurri. Does Dan Fitch think they'll win the title?

They say that it takes a big man to admit he's wrong and whilst I may be six feet and four inches tall, the various weaknesses in my character would prevent me from ever describing myself as such. Sometimes though, the cold, hard, facts of the matter prove so conclusively that you are wrong, that there's very little leeway for counterargument.

Last week I stated that Serie A had lacked any drama this season and had been entirely predictable. I was of course expecting Inter to take the three points they needed at home to Siena to wrap up the title. But unlike their namesake Miss Miller, this Siena didn't just lie back and think of England when confronted with a famous name.

Inter were held to a draw whilst Roma beat Atalanta to cut the gap at the top to just one point with one game remaining. I have to admit at this juncture, that a title race that goes down to the last day of the season, does have to be classified as 'dramatic'.

One way or the other, the Scudetto will be decided at 2pm on Sunday. Both the Parma v Inter and the Catania v Roma matches are available to view through Betfair Live Video. It may not boast the charms of Laura Esposito, but at least there's no chance of having to listen to Lee Sharpe reminiscing about his short lived stay with Sampdoria.

Inter are still the hot favourites to take the title at [1.31] with Roma [4.1], having been previously matched as high as [90.0]. It will be a remarkable feat if Roma do manage to top an Inter side that have been league leaders for most of the season. Though Roma's solid form has helped them back into contention, in reality it's the collapse of Inter that has made this unlikely event a reality.

How Roberto Mancini must regret getting all emotional and announcing that this season would be his last as manager following the Champions League elimination against Liverpool. Since this announcement, Inter have picked up 18 points from a possible 30, whilst Roma have taken 23 from their corresponding ten fixtures.

Mancini has since denied that he will be leaving and has been backed by the Inter hierarchy, but the constant rumours regarding Mourinho suggests otherwise. It never does a club any good to have a manager with job prospects as shaky as Gordon Brown and Mancini's error of judgement has created a slump from which it is unlikely that he could continue, even if he really wanted to.

Inter's task of holding onto the title is made that much harder by the fact that they face a Parma side that must win, if they are to avoid relegation. Parma are currently in eighteenth position on 34 points and looking up at Catania on 36 points, who will be tricky opponents for Roma.

In Inter's favour is the fact that Parma are in miserable form, with just 9 points from their last 10 games and only 3 wins from their last 9 home games. Catania, however, showed some signs of life last week when they won an away point at Juventus and were only narrowly defeated by Roma over two legs in the recent Copa Italia semi final. Parma are the [1.13] favourites to be relegated, with Empoli [1.49] and Catania [2.06].

It all comes down to whether Inter can handle the pressure and the game against Siena which saw Inter surrender the lead twice and then miss a penalty through Materazzi, suggests that they can't. It is worth considering though, that psychologically it is much easier to perform without any weight of expectation, as Roma have been able to. Now Roma must win and find themselves in a similar position to the Chelsea team that pegged back Manchester United, only to draw at home to Bolton.

Inter are [1.61] with Parma [5.9] and the draw [4.4]. I'd suggest the value is with the lay of Inter, in a game where anything could happen. The same is true of Roma, who are [1.7] with Catania [6.4] and the draw [3.8]. Whoever said Serie A was boring?