European Leagues / Bettorlogic / 29 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Bettorlogic have compiled a report using their player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing and returning across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB* Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Toulouse v Lyon

Juninho

Juninho is suspended for Lyon's final game of the season and having agreed to part company with the club at the end of the season has now played his final game for Lyon. The Brazilian maestro has played 51 of Lyon's 75 matches since the start of last season. With him, they've collected an average of 2.06 points per game, winning 61% and losing 16% of their games. This is compared with a return of 1.83 points per game from the 24 matches he's missed - an 11% decrease.

Juninho has been the creative catalyst behind Lyon's success over the past eight seasons and this is highlighted by their goals scored since the start of last season. With Juninho, they've averaged 1.82 goals per game while without him they've seen a 24% decrease to just 1.38.
Toulouse can be backed at [2.38] to win.

Round-Up

Palermo v Sampdoria - Edison Cavani

Palermo's Uruguayan striker Edison Cavani is injured for their final game of the season against Sampdoria and when he's been absent in the past, Palermo have tended to struggle. Cavani has played 50 of their 75 games since the start of last season, Palermo winning 48% of the matches he's started, averaging 1.62 points per game. Without the Uruguayan, Palermo's win rate drops to 20% and PPG average to just 0.88. Their ability to score goals has also been severely handicapped, when Cavani is absent, their goals scored per game falling by 42% from 1.58 to 0.92. Whilst neither side have much to play for, without Cavani, Palermo can be layed at [1.90].

Marseille v Rennes - Mathieu Valbuena

Marseille will be unable to call upon the services of their highly effective attacking midfielder Valbuena for their final match of the season after he picked up a suspension. The diminutive midfielder has played 39 of Marseilles matches since the start of last season, Marseille winning 62%, scoring an average of 1.74 goals per game. Without Valbuena however, Marseille have won just 39% of 36 matches since the start of last season - their goals per game falling by 16% to 1.47.

Whilst Marseille are going for the title, without Valbuena they may not have it all their own way and Rennes look worth supporting on the asian handicap +1.0 goals.

Lille v Nancy - Gregory Tafforeau

Tafforeau has played 40 of Lille's 75 matches since the start of last season but the defender is out of their final match of the season due to suspension. When he has played, Lille have won 43% and lost just 18% of their matches, while without him they've won only 34% and lost 23% of their matches. With Tafforeau in their defence, Lille's cocession rate is just 0.83 goals per game since the start of last season. When he doesn't start, that rate increases to 1.03.

Nancy may well be able to take advantage of Tafforeau's absence and supporting them on the asian handicap with a +1.0 goal advantage looks value.