Ligue 1 Betting: Back free-scoring Lyon to exploit Auxerre's attacking injury crisis

European Leagues / James Eastham / 20 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Lyon have goalscorers in virtually every position on the pitch and put five past Anderlecht in midweek.

Recommended bets: Lyon to win at Auxerre @ 2.14; Le Mans v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ 2.56; lay Monaco at home to Lorient @ 2.22.

The former French champions are lucky enough to be travelling to Burgundy at a time when Jean Fernandez's usually competent hosts are missing three important players, writes James Eastham - but the most appealing wager of the weekend involves Paulo Duarte's entertaining Le Mans side for the second week running. Best bet: Le Mans v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ 2.56.

The start of the Ligue 1 season has been unusually high-scoring - 20 games so far have averaged 2.85 goals each - so avoid the short prices on under 1.5 goals and under 2.5 goals at the moment.

Le Mans v Nancy (Saturday, 6pm)

I did a double-take when I first saw the price on over 2.5 goals in this game as [2.56] in no way reflects the fact that Nancy and Le Mans' games have averaged four goals so far this season.

Paulo Duarte's hosts drew 2-2 against Lyon on the opening day before losing 3-1 at PSG last weekend, while Nancy won 3-1 at Valenciennes on matchday 1 before thrashing Monaco 4-0 last Saturday. I can only imagine that the exchange users putting up such generous odds are dwelling on last season, when Pablo Correa imposed rigid tactics on his Lorraine-based players. But the Nancy coach has undergone a transformation over the summer and admitted he will enable a more attacking approach this season.

Le Mans boss Duarte is a long-term believer in attacking football, and his side's personnel problems (first-choice goalkeeper Rodolphe Roche and centre-half Geder are out) merely increase the probability of three goals. Take the excellent price on a high-scoring encounter and then sit back and enjoy what looks likely to be an entertaining game

Auxerre v Lyon (Saturday, 6pm)

If Auxerre were at full strength, I would want bigger odds on Lyon to win at Stade Abbe Deschamps - but the injury crisis that has afflicted Jean Fernandez's hosts during the opening two weeks of the season means that the visitors look good value at [2.14].

Ireneusz Jelen scored 11 goals in his final 16 appearances of 2008-09 to lift Auxerre from the fringes of a relegation battle to eighth in the final standings. But the Poland international is out until October, a situation made worse by the fact that the club's second and third best strikers, new signing Alexandre Licata and Julien Quercia, are also sidelined by injury.

Daniel Niculae led the line in Auxerre's opening two fixtures of the season but his toothless displays in those games underlined why he failed to find the net in 32 league appearances last term. The home side's problems mean the stage is set for Lyon to build on their exhilarating 5-1 Champions League victory over Anderlecht on Wednesday night, a game that exhibited the thrilling impact of new attacking trio Lisandro Lopez, Bafetimbi Gomis and Michel Bastos.

Monaco v Lorient (Saturday, 6pm)

Lorient's last-minute equaliser at home to Montpellier (2-2) last weekend was barely deserved but underlined the brilliance of Olivier Monterrubio's left foot. The 33-year-old winger has set up three of Lorient's four goals this season, confirming what an astute move it was to recall him to his homeland from Swiss club Sion.

I expect a much more rounded display from Lorient this weekend as their manager Christian Gourcuff generally ensures below-par performances come in ones rather than twos. The same cannot be said of Monaco - they lost 4-0 at Nancy last weekend and coach Guy Lacombe was right to question his players' attitude afterwards. Monaco have some talented youngsters (Juan Pablo Pino, Yohan Mollo, Serge Gakpe) but their chronic inability to show resolve when they fall behind in games threatens to undermine their potential.

Lorient's counter-attacking style and Monterrubio's dead-ball prowess give the visitors an excellent chance of opening up the hosts at some point. I'm happy to oppose Lacombe's gifted, flaky side at around [2.2].

* James Eastham has made 20.14pts (after 5% commission) from 87pts staked (23.1% ROI) on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets on betting.betfair.com.