Ligue 1 Betting Preview: Les Verts aim to end real deal domination

European Leagues / James Eastham / 28 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

The 'Derby du Rhones-Alpes' provides a rare opportunity to back Lyon at odds-against, says James Eastham. Meanwhile, PSG are no longer the bettor's bette noire.

The last time St Etienne [3.35] beat Lyon [2.38] in the 'Derby du Rhones-Alpes', Zinedine Zidane had a full head of hair, Francois Mitterrand was president of the Fifth Republique and David Ginola was a national outcast for costing his nation a place at the 1994 World Cup.

In 16 meetings since that 3-0 victory back in April 1994, les Verts have drawn seven and lost nine times. Evidence, then, that Lyon have enjoyed local as well as national supremacy in recent times.

Last year was as close as St Etienne have come to breaking their winless streak. Lyon needed a 92nd-minute Karim Benzema free-kick - before you ask, Juninho was having a day off - to rescue a point at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Unfortunately for Verts fans, the chances of it being as close this time appear slim.

"I don't recognise my team," moaned St Etienne coach Laurent Roussey after a 1-0 defeat at Le Mans last weekend. Spot on, Laurent. You need to be at your best to beat Lyon - and St Etienne are anything but right now. Two defeats, split by an unconvincing 2-1 win over Sochaux, hardly constitutes form to worry the seven-times champions. St Etienne's players are mentally fragile - and no Ligue 1 team is more adept at exploiting psychological weaknesses than Lyon. Don't let 'the derby factor' of the supposed disadvantage of playing away from home put you off - this is a rare opportunity to back Lyon at odds-against.

Les Lyonnais may be the real deal, but it's all too easy to back teams on reputation alone. You know the thing: Tottenham in England, Atletico Madrid in Spain. They cost you a fortune.

In France, PSG are the bete noire of bettors. Look at their stats over the past four seasons: played 152, won 47. That's a 31% win rate - blind layers would have made a mint. The other thing, though, about reputation betting is to know when the wind turns. In PSG's case, that's now. No longer are the capital outfit cannon fodder.

Coach Paul Le Guen said he would build a competitive side if funds were made available - and so it's proved. Claude Makelele and Ludovic Giuly have added bite and skill in midfield. Stephane Sessegnon, a 9m euros signing from Le Mans, scored a 20-yard screamer last weekend. Let's wait and see if Mateja Kezman, the latest arrival, enhances the Parisian renaissance.

That's why we're backing PSG this weekend. Confidence in the camp is rising, and in Caen [2.76] they're facing opponents who always give you a chance to score. PSG are [2.96], but as the team isn't the finished article, we feel they're a safer bet with a 0-goal start on the Asian handicap [2.02].

Our third bet of the weekend is on goals when Marseille [1.53] face Sochaux [8.0] at the Stade Velodrome on Saturday night. Eric Gerets' hosts, who look like genuine title challengers, have scored 12 in five games and boast one of the most exciting attacks in France. Djibril Cisse may have gone, but Bakari Kone, Hatem Ben Arfa and Mamadou Niang are the envy of all French sides bar you know who.

The defence has tightened up since Marseille drew 4-4 at Rennes on opening night, but they've ridden their luck at the back since that eight-goal thriller. Expect Sochaux, who've scored in all three of their Ligue 1 games this season, to profit from local profligacy at the back. Captain Stephane Dalmat, under strict orders to shoot more this season, would love a goal against his former club Marseille. And in Mevlut Erding, Sochaux have one of the most lethal strikers around. The Turkey international has netted twice in three games this season after notching 11 in 29 last term. Marseille ought to win, but both teams should score, so 2-1 [8.5] and 3-1 [12] are the stand-out bets.

Finally, if you're looking for a snooze on Saturday night, catch Nancy v Le Havre. The pair have notched just three goals in six matches between them and are yet to be acquainted with the opposition goalmouth for more than the odd moment. Under 2.5 goals [1.63] is always a short price in France - but on this occasion it looks good value. Just don't expect to be awake at the final whistle.

Recommended bets:

Lyon to win at St Etienne [2.38]
PSG +0 at Caen [2.02]
Marseille v Sochaux 2-1 [8.5] and 3-1 [12] correct scorelines (split stakes)
Nancy v Le Havre under 2.5 goals [1.63]