Ligue 1 Betting: Goals in order as fans turn up heat in 'The Cauldron'

European Leagues / James Eastham / 27 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Mevlut Erding's PSG are worth opposing this weekend.

Recommended bets: Back Rennes +0 Asian handicap at Lens @ 2.05; Lorient v Le Mans over 2.5 goals @ 2.46; St Etienne v Grenoble over 2.5 goals @ 2.58; lay PSG at home to Lille @ 1.92.

With two winners from three recommendations last weekend and an overall profit on the first three matchdays of 2009-10, we've picked up where we left off last season. This weekend we're banking on goals and a couple of strong away performances to further improve our French league returns. Best bet: Rennes +0 Asian handicap against Lens @ [2.05] (three winners from three best bets this season so far).

The biggest match of the weekend takes place at Marseille's Stade Velodrome on Sunday night when Marseille, last season's runners-up, host Bordeaux, the side that pipped them to the 2008-09 title. Hosts l'OM look slightly short at [2.24], but the fixture doesn't make our four-bet shortlist across all Ligue 1 games:

Lens v Rennes (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

Not many teams will outplay Marseille this season - but Rennes did exactly that by dominating for long spells when the two sides played out a 1-1 draw at Stade de la Route de Lorient last weekend. The Bretons' imposing back line includes Rod Fanni, who is Bacary Sagna's understudy for France these days, and Kader Mangane, the powerfully-built Senegal international centre-half who will surely attract a serious bid from a Premier League club within the next 12 months.

Rennes' attacking talent takes the form of Gyan Asamoah, who has put last season's injury problems behind him, and Ismael Bangoura, an 11m euro summer signing from Dynamo Kiev. Newly-promoted Lens have beaten mediocre opposition in the last two weeks - 2-0 v Auxerre, 2-1 at Grenoble - but their opening-day thrashing at Bordeaux (4-1) is a far better guide to this game.

I don't see Rennes losing, so I'm happy to back them on the handicap.

Lorient v Le Mans (Saturday, 6pm)

For the third week running I'm backing Le Mans' game to have over 2.5 goals. Last weekend they led Nancy 2-0 by the 53rd minute but continued to attack, allowing Damian Macaluso to sneak a late consolation goal for the visitors. Such is coach Paulo Duarte's way of playing, and long may it continue while the prices on overs hold up.

Lorient look equally susceptible at the back, having sold defenders Christophe Jallet (PSG) and Michael Ciani (Bordeaux) over the summer. Outstanding goalkeeper Fabien Audard is doing his best to keep opposition strikers at bay, but cannot be expected to perform miracles every week, which is why they lost 2-0 at Monaco last week. The Bretons are capable of scoring, too - Lorient's games have averaged three goals each this season, and strikers Kevin Gameiro and Marama Vahirua have contributed to those figures.

The price of [2.46] on over 2.5 goals bears no relation to the form and likely approach of the two sides, so back it while you can.

St Etienne v Grenoble (Saturday, 6pm)

This is a must-win game for both teams because St Etienne and Grenoble are winless and pointless after three matches.

St Etienne fans mounted a peaceful pitch invasion at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard - informally known as 'The Cauldron' - following their team's 1-0 home defeat to Boulogne last weekend, which should invoke a response from the players this weekend. Les Verts had 19 scoring chances without netting in the match, so there are signs that goals are about to come.

Grenoble have pulled off a real coup in the transfer market by signing Daniel Ljuboja. The Croatia international has scored two goals in two-and-a-half appearances and will fancy his chances of increasing his tally against St Etienne's faulty back four. But Grenoble look weak at the back themselves - like St Etienne, they have conceded an average of two goals a game.

The price of [2.58] on overs makes no sense when you consider that St Etienne are playing at home, both teams need to win and the defences are poor. Get on while the price exists.

PSG v Lille (Sunday, 4pm)

PSG have taken six points over the last two weekends, but I put their consecutive victories largely down to the opposition they faced. Le Mans and Valenciennes - beaten 3-1 and 3-2 respectively - have two of the flakiest defences in the top flight, which allowed PSG to mask their own defensive problems.

Lille ought to provide a far stiffer test of the capital club's credentials. Rudi Garcia's men have begun the season in faltering form - just one point from nine - but they had one of the toughest early fixture lists in the division (Marseille away, Toulouse at home) and have had to contend with Europa League games as well. I expect them to produce a more assured performance sooner rather than later and, as they enjoy away games against more highly-regarded opponents, this could be the weekend.

Crucially, Lille's centre-back pairing of Nicolas Plestan and Adil Rami is better than anything PSG have faced so far. If the capital club fail to score more than once, they'll struggle to win, because their own back line is full of holes. I'm stumped as to why PSG coach Antoine Kombouare seemed happy to go into the season with only three fit centre-halves, given that two of those players, Sammy Traore and Gregory Bourillon, wouldn't get into any of the other top eight sides in the country.

Over 2.5 goals ([2.46]) is an option, although I wouldn't rule out a 1-1 at [6.8]. Lille picked up points at Bordeaux, Marseille and Lyon last season, and I expect them to do the same in Paris. My pick is to lay PSG at odds-on ([1.92]).