European Leagues / James Eastham / 10 September 2009 / Leave a comment

A 'Big Three' has emerged in France this season, writes James Eastham - but you'll still find favourable prices on the top Ligue 1 clubs this weekend compared to their counterparts in England, Spain and Italy. Best bet: Lyon v Lorient over 2.5 goals @ [2.08].

Recommended bets: Lyon v Lorient over 2.5 goals @ 2.08; Bordeaux -1.5 Asian handicap v Grenoble @ 2.00; a Lyon and Bordeaux win double at 1.39 and 1.30 respectively (pays out at 1.81).

I'm always wary of backing sides too heavily immediately after a round of international games - so keep your stakes low and stick with the most reliable sides this weekend.

Lyon v Lorient (Saturday, 6pm UK time)

By luck or design, pragmatic Lyon coach Claude Puel has ended up with the most exciting front line in France this season. And, on the evidence so far, Lisandro Lopez, Bafetimbi Gomis and Michel Bastos are worth every cent of the 57m euro the club spent on them.

The trio have scored 12 goals (Lisandro six, Gomis four and Bastos two) in six games in all competitions, which partly explains why 'OL' have been cut to [2.38] to regain the title they relinquished to Bordeaux last May. They are still seeking balance in their side, however - holding midfielder Jeremy Toulalan is overworked, centre-half Cris makes the sort of mistakes that were alien to him three or four seasons ago and Mathieu Bodmer has yet to persuade most observers that Puel is right to think he can perfom as proficiently in defence as he used to in midfield.

The upshot is that Lyon will generally need to score two or three goals to win games this season, because their chances of keeping clean sheets appear slim. Lorient's defence is weak, following the summer departures of Christophe Jallet (PSG) and Michael Ciani (Bordeaux), so I expect the visitors to be compliant in a high-scoring Lyon victory. The hosts are available at [1.94] with a -1.25-goal start on the Asian handicap, but over 2.5 goals at [2.08] looks better value.

Bordeaux v Grenoble (Saturday, 6pm)

Bordeaux have made an excellent start to their title defence, winning three games and drawing 0-0 at Marseille before the international break. [4.5] ante-post to retain their crown, Laurent Blanc's side have now come in to [3.6].

The defining characteristic of their three victories was a desire to win emphatically, resulting in 4-1 and 4-0 scorelines against Lens and Nice respectively in their two home games. Visitors Grenoble are bottom of Ligue 1 after four defeats from their opening four games, and performances were as poor as those results suggest. Only Croatia striker Daniel Ljuboja, scorer of two goals in three-and-a-half games, carries a threat, so it's difficult to see how Grenoble will get back into the game if and when Bordeaux take the lead.

Correct-score punters ought to consider 3-0 and 'any unquoted' (which covers, 4-0, 4-1, 5-0...) scorelines at [9.4] and [5.9] respectively, and over 2.5 goals at [1.96] is a worthwhile option, too. But the best way to profit from Bordeaux's insatiable desire for goals is to back the home side with a -1.5 Asian handicap start at [2.00].

A Lyon & Bordeaux win double

Normally I don't recommend accumulators, but the prices on Lyon and Bordeaux wins this weekend are too good to ignore.

Over the past five or six seasons, the top positions in France, behind multiple champions Lyon, have been more fluid than their equivalents in England, Spain and Italy, which means you can find attractive prices on sides who would be considered home bankers abroad. Exchange users haven't completely wised up to the fact that a Big Three comprising Lyon, Bordeaux and Marseille has emerged in Ligue 1, which is why Lyon and Bordeaux are [1.39] and [1.30] to beat Lorient and Grenoble respectively, whereas you might find Chelsea and Barcelona at half those odds to beat comparable sides in their respective leagues.

A two-fold accumulator on Lyon and Bordeaux pays out at [1.81]. I'd take that, because the matchday prices on these two sides, plus Marseille, will contract as they press home their supremacy in the months ahead.

Tags: Bafetimbi Gomis, Bordeaux, Claude Puel, football betting, French football, Laurent Blanc, Ligue 1, Lisandro Lopez, Lyon, Michel Bastos, over 2.5 goals