European Leagues / James Eastham / 31 July 2009 / Leave a comment

The French League season kicks off on August 8, and the transfer market manoeuvres of Marseille's highly-decorated new manager have left big-spending Lyon outfoxed, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Marseille to win Ligue 1 title at [3.25].

Recommended bet: Back Marseille to win Ligue 1 title @ 3.25 (if you haven't already layed Lyon at 2.5).

Since I wrote off Lyon's chances of regaining their Ligue 1 title a couple of weeks ago, the club have embarked on the biggest spending spree by a single club in French football history.

The arrival of FC Porto's six-goal Champions League top scorer Lisandro Lopez (24m euro), his Porto colleague and French left-back Aly Cissokho (15m euro), St Etienne's powerfully-built France striker Bafetimbi Gomis (13m euro) and Lille's Brazilian left-winger Michel Bastos (18m euro) have assuaged fears that Lyon would fall back into the pack, but I still find their ante-post title price of [2.6] impossible to justify.

Why? Because Lyon have overspent, bought in haste and lack depth in crucial areas. Is Cissokho really worth 15m euro on the strength of 19 league and Champions League games for Porto? Are Lopez and Gomis compatible, or was the first a hurried attempt to make a statement in the wake of Benzema's departure, and is the second a third-choice signing after the failure to prise Andre-Pierre Gignac and Loic Remy away from Toulouse and Nice respectively? And is manager Claude Puel's announcement that "our recruitment is closed" wise, given that Lyon plan to play two up front this season and their only cover in attack is the erratic Frederic Piquionne (who may leave) and unproven Yannis Tafer?

Lyon's 70m euro outlay may have defied 'la crise', as the French call the credit crunch - but I've yet to be convinced they're in the right shape to win an eighth title in nine years.

Not that champions Bordeaux offer better value. Their players will focus on reaching the Champions League knock-out stages so I expect their title defence to waver. Manager Laurent Blanc has bought well - Cedric Carrasso (8m euro from Toulouse) was the best French goalkeeper on the market, and centre-half Michael Ciani (3m euro from Lorient) is a solid replacement for Marseille-bound Souleymane Diawara - but winning consecutive league crowns is notoriously difficult, so I expect Bordeaux to be bigger than [4.0] at some point

All of which makes Marseille the most attractive runners. New boss Didier Deschamps has had a highly successful summer in the transfer market, acquiring all his first choices (Diawara, FC Porto playmaker Lucho Gonzalez and Rennes holding midfielder Stephane Mbia) while also strengthening the squad by making excellent signings such as Edouard Cisse (Besiktas), Fabrice Abriel (Lorient), Cyril Rool (Nice) and Fernando Morientes (Valencia), with whom he has almost a father-son relationship following their spell together at Monaco (2003-04). Marseille, seeking their first title in 18 years, aren't likely to let Champions League thoughts cloud their minds, either - so if you haven't layed Lyon, backing Marseille at [3.25] is a sound alternative.

In the 'Top 3 Finish' market, PSG (6th last year) and Toulouse (4th) are likely to appeal to plenty of punters, but PSG will be too short and Toulouse are weaker after losing goalkeeper Carrasso to Bordeaux and outstanding left-back Jeremy Mathieu to Valencia. Lille have recovered from a crazy June, when they sacked manager Rudi Garcia only to reappoint him a couple of weeks later, and will be contenders to better last season's fifth place as long as Brazilian centre-forward Tulio De Melo rediscovers his scoring form after a season on the sidelines. Lille are a safer bet than Rennes (7th last season), who have overspent on Ismael Bangoura (11m euro) and are surely alone in thinking Junichi Inamoto is the man to fill Mbia's boots.

The 'Top 3 Finish' market is waiting for liquidity, but when the money starts to flow, the Big Three (Marseille, Bordeaux and Lyon) will trade a lot shorter than the rest. And rightly so, for they're clearly the strongest sides out there.

If you fancy a speculative wager, Lille are the pick - but don't take less than [10.0] about Garcia's side, because their chances of breaking the Big Three's grip on the top positions are minimal.

* James Eastham made 19.86pts (after 5% commission) from 83pts staked (23.9% ROI) on Ligue 1 matches and outright market last season.