La Liga Betting: Valencia v Atletico Madrid - Forlan wants Champions League football

European Leagues / Dan Fitch / 16 May 2008 / Leave a Comment

Dan "the Betting Man" Fitch reflects on a disastrous collapse by Frank Rijkaard's Barcelona this season and wonders whether they may miss out on Champions' League football next season. Atletico and Sevilla can deprive them of it if they don't win this weekend.

With the title race in Spain over at the point where Barcelona turned from the most beautiful and effective football team on Earth, to the lazy, arrogant, parasites that have sleepwalked to the end of their season, the attention turned to the race for Champions League qualification.

Last weekend Atletico Madrid secured the win they needed to guarantee Champions League football, though a cursory glance at the Primera Division table may make you think that the race is still on. Not only should Sevilla be able to qualify on goal difference if results go their way, but both Atletico and Sevilla should be able to relegate Barcelona to one of the UEFA Cup spots, which would at least provide some sort of plausible motivation for Samuel Eto'o to join Spurs

The reason that none of this is possible is that, in Spain, if two teams are tied on points they decide who should be higher on the basis of head to head encounters before goal difference is taken into account. As Atletico beat Sevilla 4-3 at home and 2-1 away, they have at least secured fourth place.

But, just when it seemed as though silly Spanish FA rules had prevented any interest in the last weekend of La Liga, I present a glimmer of hope. Fourth placed Atletico are currently level on points with third placed Barcelona and the two teams have shared a win apiece in the matches between them this season. Barcelona's goal difference is unassailable, but if they slumped to an uninterested draw whilst Atletico took three points this weekend, then the Madrid side would move into third place. Atletico are [4.6] for a top three finish, with Barcelona [1.16] having traded as low as [1.01].

The bad news for Atletico is that Barcelona are away to already-relegated Murcia. The good news is that Barcelona are themselves in relegation-esque form and Atletico are travelling to a side that have given up home points with the same sort of freedom that your luggage is given away at Terminal 5.

I am, of course, referring to Valencia who, having got themselves out of the relegation trouble, have officially nothing to play for except pride (a commodity that is in low reserves, from top to bottom throughout the club). If you're thinking that all of this doesn't exactly sound nail biting, then you'll be disappointed to hear that the Spanish FA have somehow conspired to make it even less so.

Rather than playing all of the fixtures at the same time, in a way that would create tension and be fair, they have instead chosen to stagger the kick off times. This is a frequent sight of a weekend where, with the wonders of my Sky remote, I can travel across more corners of Spain than Judith Chalmers. However, the last day of the season is something else and if the Premier League can manage to get the likes of Sky and Sentanta to place nicely at the same time, then you'd have thought that something similar could be arranged in Spain.

Barcelona play Murcia on Saturday night, with Atletico travelling to Valencia on Sunday. I'd suggest that Barcelona's result will make something of an impact on the price of Atletico, depending on whether they go into the last game with anything to play for.

Despite qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in eleven years, there is still speculation over the future of Atletico coach Javier Aguirre. Qualification reputedly triggered a two year extension of his contract, but there's still talk that he'll be given the boot. The trigger happy former Atletico president Jesus Gil may have departed from this mortal coil, but like his biblical namesake, it seems as though his spirit lives on.

Valencia are the [2.74] favourites, with Atletico [2.88] and the draw [3.3]. As mentioned previously, I think that the Barcelona result will have a big say in this one. If Barca get a win, then this will probably finish in a draw between two sides with nothing to play for. Anything else will see Atletico start as favourites and I'd expect them to win.